Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.</p>

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.</p><p>UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.</p><p>Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.</p><p>Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.</p><p>German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.</p><p>Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.</p>

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kyle-rudden" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4495" rel="noopener">Kyle Rudden</a>, who continues his series on ESG investing.</p><p>On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.</p><p>This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.</p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=88191048159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Kyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.</p>

For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider Kyle Rudden, who continues his series on ESG investing.On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereKyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>American mining giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> will not proceed with plans to build a new copper smelter with China’s Tsingshan Holding Group in Indonesia, according to PT Freeport Indonesia.</p>
<p>The fact that this deal will not go ahead is a positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> is scheduled to build a smelter at its JIIPE (Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) Industrial estate, and this news cements that deal.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> has confirmed it will go ahead with plans to build a new smelter near its existing copper refining operations at the JIIPE Industrial estate in Gresik and has signed an EPC contract with Japanese engineering company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> to build the plant.</p>
<p>This is a significant development for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> to have this confirmation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> as an anchor tenant for JIIPE as it will draw many more investors in industries related to copper like electric vehicle (EV) batteries to the JIIPE Estate.</p>
<div>JIIPE should also see more focus given its recently granted special economic zone status (KEK) status, with healthy land enquiries which should enable the company to increase marketing sales for this year, currently forecast at 35 ha. </div>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> is due to announce 1H2021 results toward the end of July, with the expectation of a strong set of numbers similar to Q12021 with profit growth of more than +25%.</div>
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<p>The company<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener"></a> is trading on 11.1x FY21E PER and 11.0x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 17.2x, which makes it look attractive from a valuation perspective.</p>
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American mining giant Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) will not proceed with plans to build a new copper smelter with China’s Tsingshan Holding Group in Indonesia, according to PT Freeport Indonesia.
The fact that this deal will not go ahead is a positive for AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) is scheduled to build a smelter at its JIIPE (Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) Industrial estate, and this news cements that deal.
Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) has confirmed it will go ahead with plans to build a new smelter near its existing copper refining operations at the JIIPE Industrial estate in Gresik and has signed an EPC contract with Japanese engineering company Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) to build the plant.
This is a significant development for AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) to have this confirmation of Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) as an anchor tenant for JIIPE as it will draw many more investors in industries related to copper like electric vehicle (EV) batteries to the JIIPE Estate.
JIIPE should also see more focus given its recently granted special economic zone status (KEK) status, with healthy land enquiries which should enable the company to increase marketing sales for this year, currently forecast at 35 ha. 


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) is due to announce 1H2021 results toward the end of July, with the expectation of a strong set of numbers similar to Q12021 with profit growth of more than +25%.





The company is trading on 11.1x FY21E PER and 11.0x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 17.2x, which makes it look attractive from a valuation perspective.






AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Freeport Smelter a Boon for JIIPE

<p>For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kyle-rudden" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4495" rel="noopener">Kyle Rudden</a> , who will be sharing insights on the trending issue of Environmental, Social, and Governance Investing. ESG investing is widely seen as a way of investing “sustainably” where investments are made with consideration of the environment and human well-being, as well as the economy. Kyle believes global sustainability is imperative and views private-sector capital as its cornerstone. As such, he supports the various impact-oriented strategies typically associated with ESG investing. However, his views on ESG and investing lean more pragmatic than idealistic, and his research focuses on applying ESG analysis to general investing rather than to "ESG investing" per se. Kyle subscribes to the Triple Bottom Line view of sustainability, where economic and financial metrics are deemed as important as ESG factors.</p><p>This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.</p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 14 July 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=86937019742" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Kyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.</p>

For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider Kyle Rudden , who will be sharing insights on the trending issue of Environmental, Social, and Governance Investing. ESG investing is widely seen as a way of investing “sustainably” where investments are made with consideration of the environment and human well-being, as well as the economy. Kyle believes global sustainability is imperative and views private-sector capital as its cornerstone. As such, he supports the various impact-oriented strategies typically associated with ESG investing. However, his views on ESG and investing lean more pragmatic than idealistic, and his research focuses on applying ESG analysis to general investing rather than to "ESG investing" per se. Kyle subscribes to the Triple Bottom Line view of sustainability, where economic and financial metrics are deemed as important as ESG factors.This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 14 July 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereKyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.

Smartkarma Webinar | Foundations of Sustainable/ESG Investing and Finance

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

On 25 August, 5pm SGT, join us and Kyle Rudden for an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate in ESG investing. This webinar is...

Smartkarma Research

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Freeport Smelter a Boon for JIIPE

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) remains one of the few good quality industrial plays in Indonesia through its chemical and fuel distribution business plus...

Angus Mackintosh

Smartkarma Webinar | Foundations of Sustainable/ESG Investing and Finance

On 14 July, 5pm SGT, join our webinar with Kyle Rudden, who will be sharing his insights on the trending issue of ESG Investing and the Triple...

Smartkarma Research

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