Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

<ul>
<li>At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopping-centres-australasia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20100:1" rel="noopener">Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining (SYA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-social-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8288:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.</li>
</ul>


At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU), Sayona Mining (SYA AU), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU).
Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

<ul>
<li>There could be one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in July following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. </li>
<li>There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There could be one change to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU). 
Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. 
There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Coverage now expanded to 730 mining companies</li>
<li>Retain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a> as a Speculative Buy</li>
<li>Current drilling infill only</li>
<li>Est. A$4-4.5m cash with capital raising soon</li>
<li>Very solid geological genetic model honing future extensional exploration efforts </li>
<li>Expect maiden Resource computation to commence after next three hole assays released</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6870:1">Aeon Metals Ltd (AML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27943" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27943:1">Blackearth Minerals NL (BEM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4823" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5672" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5672:1">Centaurus Metals (CTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23854" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23854:1">Amur Minerals (AMC LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24745:1">Patagonia Gold (PGD LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9622" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9622:1">Tyranna Resources (TYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1784" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1784:1">Gladiator Resources (GLA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12537" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12537:1">King River Resources (KRR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19897" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1">Vango Mining (VAN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23527" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23527:1">Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17861" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17861:1">Caravel Minerals (CVV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27876" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27876:1">Lefroy Exploration Ltd (LEX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20445:1">Northern Minerals (NTU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5035" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5035:1">Blackham Resources (BLK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6148" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1">Avz Minerals (AVZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3572" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23540:1">Serabi Gold plc (SRB LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18065" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18065:1">Paringa Resources (PNL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16849" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16849:1">Artemis Resources (ARV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10093" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10093">Centrex Metals (CXM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27987" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27987">Great Boulder Resources Ltd (GBR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15163" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15163">Superior Lake Resources (SUP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27988" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27988">Cora Gold Ltd (CORA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27989" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27989">European Metals Holdings Ltd (EMH LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27990" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27990">Savannah Resources PLC (SAV LN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27991" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27991">IronRidge Resources Ltd (IRR LN)</a> 
<div></div>
</li>
</ul>


Coverage now expanded to 730 mining companies
Retain Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) as a Speculative Buy
Current drilling infill only
Est. A$4-4.5m cash with capital raising soon
Very solid geological genetic model honing future extensional exploration efforts 
Expect maiden Resource computation to commence after next three hole assays released

Aeon Metals Ltd (AML AU), Blackearth Minerals NL (BEM AU), Boss Resources (BOE AU), Centaurus Metals (CTM AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Amur Minerals (AMC LN), Patagonia Gold (PGD LN), Tyranna Resources (TYX AU), Gladiator Resources (GLA AU), King River Resources (KRR AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN), Caravel Minerals (CVV AU), Lefroy Exploration Ltd (LEX AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Northern Minerals (NTU AU), Blackham Resources (BLK AU), Avz Minerals (AVZ AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Serabi Gold plc (SRB LN), Paringa Resources (PNL AU), Artemis Resources (ARV AU), Centrex Metals (CXM AU), Great Boulder Resources Ltd (GBR AU), Superior Lake Resources (SUP AU), Cora Gold Ltd (CORA LN), European Metals Holdings Ltd (EMH LN), Savannah Resources PLC (SAV LN) , IronRidge Resources Ltd (IRR LN) 




New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/03/19)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Australia

Boss Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores and develops uranium and base metal projects. Boss Resources serves customers in Namibia.

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Boss Energy (BOE AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/03/19)

Coverage now expanded to 730 mining companies Retain Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) as a Speculative Buy Current drilling infill only Est. A$4-4.5m cash...

Boost Research

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

There are a lot of potential changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices over the next few months. Passive trading impact is high on a lot of stocks...

Brian Freitas

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/03/19)

Coverage now expanded to 730 mining companies Retain Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) as a Speculative Buy Current drilling infill only Est. A$4-4.5m cash...

Boost Research

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes