Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a>'s board rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s $6.50/share Offer in its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> of 9 June, Seven <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02388314-2A1305588?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">25 June</a>, stating it would pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%, and up to $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Seven reached 29.5% by <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02390670-2A1307144?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 1</a>, 34.5% less than a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02392570-2A1308444?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">week later</a>, then 52.65% on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02395727-2A1310071?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15 July</a>. Clearing 50% automatically extended the Offer period (pursuant to<a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca2001172/s624.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> s624</a> of the Corporations Act) to the 29 July - i.e. a two-week extension.</p>
<p>As of this morning, Seven held <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02398044-2A1311218?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">59.23%</a>. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and I have tackled this Offer <a href="https://skr.ma/Bxs7L" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/54682/Boral%20Ltd%20(BLD%20AU)%20Rejects%20Seven's%20Bump.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/46Wun" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, and <a href="https://skr.ma/q9jMa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p>With the Offer tentatively expected to close in a week's time, now is a good time to address a handful of questions I and other readers have raised.</p>
</div>


After Boral Ltd (BLD AU)'s board rejected Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s $6.50/share Offer in its Target Statement of 9 June, Seven bumped its Offer on the 25 June, stating it would pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%, and up to $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.


Seven reached 29.5% by July 1, 34.5% less than a week later, then 52.65% on the 15 July. Clearing 50% automatically extended the Offer period (pursuant to s624 of the Corporations Act) to the 29 July - i.e. a two-week extension.
As of this morning, Seven held 59.23%. 


Travis Lundy and I have tackled this Offer here, here, and here.
With the Offer tentatively expected to close in a week's time, now is a good time to address a handful of questions I and other readers have raised.


Boral Ltd: Seven's Done Deal. What Happens Next?

Travis Lundy

<div><p>After completing the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> made an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02359742-2A1290439?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt to A$1.5bn from A$1.9bn, and apply the remaining proceeds to a stock buyback. </p></div><div><p>Boral aims to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. CEO Zlato Todorcevski said: “we believe that an on-market buy-back is the most effective method of returning this surplus capital to our shareholders.”</p></div><div>
<p>As of the morning of <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372944-2A1297240?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May 10th</a>, Boral had bought back ~10.15mn shares - a bit less than 1%. </p>
<p>After the close that day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02373310-2A1297476?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an off-market takeover at $6.50, at a zero premium to the last close. There were essentially no conditions to this Offer. There was no minimum acceptance condition. Seven held ~23.18% and said it would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. But there was no cap, and they were clearly happy to go higher. </p>
<p>Seven Group had bought shares in the market in early 2020 in the covid crash, and by early June, owned 10%. by 11 September it owned 19.98%. In Australia, you can't go above 20% unless you launch a takeover, except for the neat little workaround which is that Australia's "creep rules" allow someone with more than 20% to buy up to but not more than 3.00% of shares out every six months. Seven got to 22.984% in early April. </p>
<p>Boral's board rejected the Seven Offer in its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> of 9 June. The Independent Expert Grant Samuel came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was <em>not fair or reasonable</em>.</p>
<p>In an ASX release on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02386227-2A1304322?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">21 June</a>, Boral said it would sell its North American Building Products business for US$2.15bn (~A$2.9bn). That figure was above expectations, but Seven criticized them for selling at a loss. </p>
<p>About a week later, Seven <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer, saying it would pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.</p>
<p>Seven got to 29.5% by July 1, and 34.5% less than a week later.</p>
<p>Boral finished its buyback Wednesday having spent A$859.5MM buying back 122MM+ shares at an average price of $7.01 per share. This reduces the denominator, so Seven's stake has gone higher automatically in the interim.</p>
<p>Yesterday they announced they were at 44.9% as of Monday's close, and this morning they announced 48.41%. The deal closes 7pm Thursday which means two more submission days. It looks like they will get to 50.0% and if that happens, then there is an automatic 14-day extension. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> has provided great background research on this situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boral-ltd-bld-au-seven-s-nil-premium" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51279" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boral-ltd-bld-au-rejects-seven-s-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53624" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU) Rejects Seven's Bump</a>. </p>
<p>I seek to add on with last minute strategy and thinking about the post-Offer landscape, and there is more below the fold. </p>
</div>

After completing the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play Boral Ltd (BLD AU) made an announcement on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt to A$1.5bn from A$1.9bn, and apply the remaining proceeds to a stock buyback. Boral aims to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. CEO Zlato Todorcevski said: “we believe that an on-market buy-back is the most effective method of returning this surplus capital to our shareholders.”
As of the morning of May 10th, Boral had bought back ~10.15mn shares - a bit less than 1%. 
After the close that day, Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) announced an off-market takeover at $6.50, at a zero premium to the last close. There were essentially no conditions to this Offer. There was no minimum acceptance condition. Seven held ~23.18% and said it would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. But there was no cap, and they were clearly happy to go higher. 
Seven Group had bought shares in the market in early 2020 in the covid crash, and by early June, owned 10%. by 11 September it owned 19.98%. In Australia, you can't go above 20% unless you launch a takeover, except for the neat little workaround which is that Australia's "creep rules" allow someone with more than 20% to buy up to but not more than 3.00% of shares out every six months. Seven got to 22.984% in early April. 
Boral's board rejected the Seven Offer in its Target Statement of 9 June. The Independent Expert Grant Samuel came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was not fair or reasonable.
In an ASX release on the 21 June, Boral said it would sell its North American Building Products business for US$2.15bn (~A$2.9bn). That figure was above expectations, but Seven criticized them for selling at a loss. 
About a week later, Seven bumped its Offer, saying it would pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.
Seven got to 29.5% by July 1, and 34.5% less than a week later.
Boral finished its buyback Wednesday having spent A$859.5MM buying back 122MM+ shares at an average price of $7.01 per share. This reduces the denominator, so Seven's stake has gone higher automatically in the interim.
Yesterday they announced they were at 44.9% as of Monday's close, and this morning they announced 48.41%. The deal closes 7pm Thursday which means two more submission days. It looks like they will get to 50.0% and if that happens, then there is an automatic 14-day extension. 
David Blennerhassett has provided great background research on this situation in Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium and Boral Ltd (BLD AU) Rejects Seven's Bump. 
I seek to add on with last minute strategy and thinking about the post-Offer landscape, and there is more below the fold. 


Boral's Bump Earned, Likely to Extend, but THEN WHAT?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<div><p>Following the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02359742-2A1290439?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt, and apply the remaining proceeds to commence a buyback. Boral aimed to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. </p></div><div><p>On the 10 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02373310-2A1297476?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an off-market takeover at $6.50, a nil premium to last close. There are essentially no conditions to this Offer. There is no minimum acceptance condition. Seven currently holds ~23.18% and would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. </p></div><div>
<p>It was a cheeky Offer to ostensibly work around the creep provisions in the legislation, and Boral's board not altogether surprisingly, recommended shareholders reject the Offer in its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> on the 9 June. The Independent Expert came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was <em>not</em> fair or reasonable. </p>
<p>Seven has now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer: it will pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.</p>
<p>The revised Offer was expected to be summarily rejected, which it <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02388314-2A1305588?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was</a>. But with a closing price of A$7.34 on Friday, A$7.40 may well get up.</p>
</div><div><p>More below the fold.</p></div>

Following the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play Boral Ltd (BLD AU) announced on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt, and apply the remaining proceeds to commence a buyback. Boral aimed to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. On the 10 May, Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) announced an off-market takeover at $6.50, a nil premium to last close. There are essentially no conditions to this Offer. There is no minimum acceptance condition. Seven currently holds ~23.18% and would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. 
It was a cheeky Offer to ostensibly work around the creep provisions in the legislation, and Boral's board not altogether surprisingly, recommended shareholders reject the Offer in its Target Statement on the 9 June. The Independent Expert came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was not fair or reasonable. 
Seven has now bumped its Offer: it will pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.
The revised Offer was expected to be summarily rejected, which it was. But with a closing price of A$7.34 on Friday, A$7.40 may well get up.
More below the fold.


For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






Australia

Boral Limited is a manufacturer and supplier of building and construction materials in Australia and internationally.  Boral supplies building products to the residential and commercial building markets, operates clay brick business in the U.S. (for clay roof tiles and fly ash) along with the production of plasterboard, timber products and concrete products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Boral Ltd (BLD AU)

Boral Ltd: Seven's Done Deal. What Happens Next?

I wouldn't short shares here. Not until you have some visibility whether Seven keeps extending, and/or closes in on 75%. If Seven gets to 75%, they...

David Blennerhassett

Boral's Bump Earned, Likely to Extend, but THEN WHAT?

Seven Group is nearing 50% on Boral, with two days left in the offer. Odds are they get there. If they do, the offer extends 14 days automatically....

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

Boral Ltd (BLD AU) Rejects Seven's Bump

Arbs probably already have ~2% ahead of the bump. If arbs go all in, that extra 10% of shares out needed to hit the $7.40/share Offer can be...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)