Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)</a> miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> and the whole sector</li>
<li>Chinese consumers aren't buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag-bmw-72824b26-c157-46b2-bafe-650cb75a091f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)</a> or going to the Movies</li>
<li>But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boot-barn-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11647:1" rel="noopener">Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US)</a> </li>
</ul>



Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK) miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, Nike (NKE US), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and the whole sector
Chinese consumers aren't buying Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR) or going to the Movies
But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US) 


Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

United States

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. sells western and work gear for individuals and families. The Company sells boots, jeans, shirts, hats, belts, jewelry, among other products. Boot Barn operates throughout the Untied States.

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Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US)

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

​Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...