Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources.

  In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources. 

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cirrus-aircraft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39858:1" rel="noopener">Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US)</a> seeks to raise up to US$197m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) seeks to raise up to US$197m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Cirrus Aircraft IPO - Fundamentally Sound but Parent Still Under Sanction

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a> is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.</li>
<li>Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. </li>
<li>Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. 
Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.



Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dazheng (without Recco) has returned with <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231224144642/en/Buyer-Consortium-Led-by-Dazheng-Group-Announces-Enhanced-All-Cash-Proposal-of-US29.00-Per-Share-to-Acquire-Hollysys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a revised US$29.00 offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, 9.4% higher than Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 binding offer.</li>
<li>While Dazheng’s proposal represents an all-time high, it would likely not be a superior proposal based on the Ascendent merger agreement due to the clauses on financing and due diligence.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, to avoid the high risk that shareholders vote down the Ascendent offer and/or there are substantial dissenting shareholders, the Board will likely ask Ascendent to match Dazheng's offer.  </li>
</ul>


Dazheng (without Recco) has returned with a revised US$29.00 offer for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), 9.4% higher than Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 binding offer.
While Dazheng’s proposal represents an all-time high, it would likely not be a superior proposal based on the Ascendent merger agreement due to the clauses on financing and due diligence.
Nevertheless, to avoid the high risk that shareholders vote down the Ascendent offer and/or there are substantial dissenting shareholders, the Board will likely ask Ascendent to match Dazheng's offer.  


Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

Canada

Bombardier Inc. is a manufacturer of both planes and trains.The Company operates plants in North America, Europe, and Asia.

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Bombardier Inc (BBD/B CN)

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Cirrus Aircraft IPO - Fundamentally Sound but Parent Still Under Sanction

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) seeks to raise up to US$197m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our...

Ethan Aw

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

While higher, the Board has the basis not to deem Dazheng’s proposal superior. However, due to the risk that shareholders vote down its offer,...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Cirrus Aircraft IPO - Fundamentally Sound but Parent Still Under Sanction

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) seeks to raise up to US$197m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our...

Ethan Aw

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

​Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

While higher, the Board has the basis not to deem Dazheng’s proposal superior. However, due to the risk that shareholders vote down its offer,...

Arun George

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...