Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners</li><li>Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levels</li><li>Fed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentiment</li><li>Central bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria</li></ul>

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver minersSome goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levelsFed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentimentCentral bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

United States

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation manufactures building materials and engineered wood products in the United States, Canada, Chile, and Brazil.  The Company's products are used by homebuilders and light commercial builders. Louisiana Pacific's products include oriented strand board sheathing, flooring, radiant barrier panels,  siding and trim, I-joists, and laminated veneer lumber.

Clearwater Paper Corp. manufactures consumer tissue, bleached paperboard, and wood products.  The Company supplies private label tissue to major retail grocery chains and produces bleached paperboard that is used by printers and packaging converters.

Huntsman Corporation manufactures differentiated and commodity chemical products.  The Company markets a broad range of chemical products and formulations to a diversified group of consumer and industrial customers. Huntsman's products are used in a range of applications, including those in adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, and consumer products.

Sealed Air Corporation manufactures packaging and performance-based materials and equipment systems that serve food, industrial, medical, and consumer applications.

Balchem Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty performance ingredients for the food, feed, and medical sterilization industries. The Company micro-encapsulates performance ingredients, and also repackages and markets specialty gases. Balchem sells its products through its own sales force, independent distributors, and sales agents.

Hecla Mining Company explores, develops, and mines precious metals, gold and silver.  The Company has operations in the United States and Mexico.

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Greif Inc. manufactures and markets industrial packaging products and services. The Company provides steel, plastic, fiber, corrugated and multiwall containers. Greif also produces containerboard and has operations nationwide.

Ashland Global Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes chemicals and thermoplastic resins. Ashland Global Holdings serves construction, automotive, energy, and pharmaceutical sectors worldwide.

NewMarket Corporation develops, manufactures, and blends fuel and lubricant additives marketed worldwide to refiners and others who sell petroleum products. The Company's products are used in transportation and industrial equipment.

Shandong Sunpaper Co., Ltd. produces and distributes paper and paperboard. The company's major products include coated paperboard, raw paper, and fine paper used in office environment.

Oji Holdings Corp manufactures paper, pulp, and processed paper goods, including news print, carbonless paper, wrapping and packaging paper, and paperboard. The Company also produces sanitary paper goods such as disposable diapers. Oji Paper has forests in Japan and overseas, and operates forestry, timber sales, and real estate businesses.

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. produces dimension lumber and related wood products, fiberboard, pulp, linerboard, kraft paper, and newsprint.  The Company has operations in British Columbia, Alberta and in the southern United States.

Stella-Jones Inc. produces and markets industrial structures and support components produced with pressure treated wood.  The Company specializes in the production of treated wood poles supplied to electrical utilities and telecommunications companies.  Stella-Jones's other products include railway ties as well as marine and foundation pilings.

Empresas CMPC S.A. manufactures and markets wood and forest products.  The Company produces cellulose, graphic papers, cardboard, tissue paper, office paper, newsprint, and packaging materials.  CMPC is based in Chile and, through subsidiaries, markets its products in Latin America, North America, Europe, and Asia.

PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Corporation Tbk operates a pulp and paper mill located in Perawang, a paper mill in Tangerang, and a packaging product mill in Serang. The Company manufactures various types of printing and writing paper including coated and uncoated free-sheets, photo copy paper, packaging container boards, corrugated shipping containers, and boxboards.

Metsa Board OYJ is a producer of fresh forest fibre cartonboards, a manufacturer of coated white-top kraftliners and a paper supplier. The Company offers solutions for consumer and retail packaging, graphics and office end-uses. Metsa's global sales network serves brand owners, carton printers, corrugated packaging manufacturers, printers, merchants and office suppliers.

Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited produces a wide range of containerboard products. The Company primarily produces linerboard, including kraft linerboard, test linerboard, white top linerboard, high performance corrugating medium and coated duplex board.

YFY Inc. manufactures and sells paper pulp and various paper products.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk operates a pulp and paper factory in East Java which manufactures a range of printing and writing papers, both coated and uncoated. The Company also produces stationery and office products such as notebooks, writing pads, loose leaf, spirals, envelopes, computer forms, gift wraps, inkjet paper, and carbonless paper.

Boise Cascade Company manufactures and markets wood products. The Company offers lumber, plywood, engineered wood, and particleboard, as well as adhesive sealants, concrete, fasteners, flashing, vents, framing accessories, gypsum, insulating, locks, and roofing products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Boise Cascade Co (BCC US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a...

Vermilion Research

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just...

Kay Van-Petersen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)