FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>In our first note for </em>2017<em> we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the </em>Trump-effect<em> on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.</em></p>

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.</p><p>Quick conclusions before delving deeper:</p><ul><li>Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;</li><li>But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;</li><li>Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;</li><li>There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;</li><li>When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.</li></ul>

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.</li>
<li><div>If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.</div></li>
<li><div>The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…</div></li>
</ul>


Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness reached an extreme.
If the reflationary theme persists through 2017, EM equities will outperform bonds - the structural decline in ROE which led to very low P/B ratios now looks over.
The broad improvement in EM relative macro momentum is reflected in net earnings revision momentum (strongest in MSCI AXJ, with India the exception) and factory PMIs, if not…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

<p>The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. </p><p>Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…</p>

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

BNP Paribas SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private and corporate banking services. The Bank also provides asset management and investment advisory services to institutions and individuals in Europe, the United States, Asia, and the emerging markets.

Societe Generale SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private banking services.  The Bank offers consumer credit, vehicle lease financing, information technology equipment leasing, life and non-life insurance, custodian services, trade and project financing, currency exchange, treasury services, and financial and commodities futures brokerage services.

Societe Generale SA attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, and private banking services. The Bank offers consumer credit, vehicle lease financing, information technology equipment leasing, life and non-life insurance, custodian services, trade and project financing, currency exchange, treasury services, and financial and commodities futures brokerage services.

Credit Agricole Ile de France is the regional bank belonging to the Credit Agricole Group. The Bank provides loans and financing to individuals and businesses through local branches in Paris and its region.

Credit Agricole du Languedoc is a regional bank in Southwestern France. The Bank provides loans and financing to individuals and businesses through local branches.

Credit Agricole Nord de France CCI is the regional bank of the Credit Agricole group for the northern part of France. The Bank serves consumers and  farmers, as well as small businesses and municipalities and offers automatic and long-distance banking services.

Caisse Regionale de Credit Agricole Mutuel Alpes Provence provides lending, depository and other financial services in the Alpes and Provence regions.

Credit Agricole Atlantique Vendee-CCI is a regional bank belonging to the Credit Agricole Group. The Bank provides loans and financing to individuals and businesses through local branches in western France.

Credit Agricole Sud Rhone Alpes is a regional bank serving southeastern France. The Bank offers credit to businesses, individuals, professionals, agricultural cooperatives and the public sector.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

BNP Paribas S.A. attracts deposits and offers commercial, retail, investment, private and corporate banking services.  The Bank also provides asset management and investment advisory services to institutions and individuals in Europe, the United States, Asia and the Emerging Markets.

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BNP Paribas (BNP FP)

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a...

Charles De Trenck

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook: Part 1 – Emerging Markets and Commodities

Overweighting EM versus DM and global resources/deep cyclicals looked like a compelling contrarian bet coming into Q1 as consensus bearishness...

Sean Maher

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

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