Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The objective of this insight is to reflect back on our work published on SmartKarma - to highlight what has worked for us and more importantly what has not worked and our plans to improve the same. </p>
<p>2020 is indeed special and we are unlikely to see something similar in our professional life once again. Therefore, we have made an attempt to capture our key learnings, which will also enable us to reflect back on the same at frequent intervals in time. </p>
<p>We also highlight our key themes for 2021 along with sectorial preferences where we might deploy our resources. </p>

The objective of this insight is to reflect back on our work published on SmartKarma - to highlight what has worked for us and more importantly what has not worked and our plans to improve the same. 
2020 is indeed special and we are unlikely to see something similar in our professional life once again. Therefore, we have made an attempt to capture our key learnings, which will also enable us to reflect back on the same at frequent intervals in time. 
We also highlight our key themes for 2021 along with sectorial preferences where we might deploy our resources. 

2020 Review & 2021 Key Themes | What Worked and What Has Not

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kerry Express Thailand / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> raised around US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> and also counts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> as a major shareholder.</p></div><div><p>I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-thailand-ipo-time-for-delivery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.</a></p></div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) raised around US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) and also counts VGI PCL (VGI TB) as a major shareholder.I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier note, Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.

Kerry Express Thailand IPO Trading - Delivering a Christmas Present

<p>Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and also counts VGI as a major shareholder.</p><p>Kerry Express Thailand is Thailand's largest private express delivery company. As of FY19, it had over 16,000 service locations in all provinces in Thailand, with its next-day delivery service covering 99.9% of Thai population. It also offers same-day delivery service within the Bangkok Metropolitan, Greater Bangkok areas and certain upcountry areas. It delivers more than 1.1m parcels everyday.</p><p>Revenue tripled over FY17-19, while gross profit was up 2.22x, EBITDA was up 2.36x, and PATMI was up 10.2x. Although, 9M20 operations weren’t anything to write home about with revenue merely being flat YoY.</p><p>Apart from being a well known brand in Thailand, it presents one of the only ways to get exposure to the e-commerce market. If that wasn’t enough, its cornerstone book is one of the best that I’ve seen, of late.</p>

Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and also counts VGI as a major shareholder.Kerry Express Thailand is Thailand's largest private express delivery company. As of FY19, it had over 16,000 service locations in all provinces in Thailand, with its next-day delivery service covering 99.9% of Thai population. It also offers same-day delivery service within the Bangkok Metropolitan, Greater Bangkok areas and certain upcountry areas. It delivers more than 1.1m parcels everyday.Revenue tripled over FY17-19, while gross profit was up 2.22x, EBITDA was up 2.36x, and PATMI was up 10.2x. Although, 9M20 operations weren’t anything to write home about with revenue merely being flat YoY.Apart from being a well known brand in Thailand, it presents one of the only ways to get exposure to the e-commerce market. If that wasn’t enough, its cornerstone book is one of the best that I’ve seen, of late.

Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> is the leading express delivery company in Thailand. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (63.0% shareholder) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> (23.0% shareholder).</p></div><div><p>Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Subscription will take place between 8-9 and 14 December for retail investors, and 16-18 December for institutional investors. The final price is expected to be announced on 15 December. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-ipo-initiation-a-recovery-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45446" rel="noopener">Kerry Express IPO Initiation: A Recovery Play?</a>, we stated that while the 3Q20 results are not ideal, we think that revenue decline is a short-term market-specific issue, and Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Kerry Express tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div></div></div>

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) is the leading express delivery company in Thailand. It is backed by Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (63.0% shareholder) and VGI PCL (VGI TB) (23.0% shareholder).Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Subscription will take place between 8-9 and 14 December for retail investors, and 16-18 December for institutional investors. The final price is expected to be announced on 15 December. In Kerry Express IPO Initiation: A Recovery Play?, we stated that while the 3Q20 results are not ideal, we think that revenue decline is a short-term market-specific issue, and Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Kerry Express tempting at the proposed pricing range. 

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Private Capital Markets

<p>Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a>'s spat over the application's removal from the Google PlayStore. Further, we also cover India's fantasy sports market where Dream11 sees Paytm First Games as a major threat.  </li>
<li>Apple set to open its first online store in India this festive season, on-ground fulfilment to be done by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-dart-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6700:1" rel="noopener">Blue Dart Express (BDE IN)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> owned Flipkart is planning an IPO, raises additional funds from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> </li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Paytm (PAYTM IN) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)'s spat over the application's removal from the Google PlayStore. Further, we also cover India's fantasy sports market where Dream11 sees Paytm First Games as a major threat.  
Apple set to open its first online store in India this festive season, on-ground fulfilment to be done by Blue Dart Express (BDE IN) 

Walmart (WMT US) owned Flipkart is planning an IPO, raises additional funds from Tencent Holdings (700 HK) 


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | PayTM, Apple, Flipkart

India

Blue Dart Express Limited operates a courier service and an integrated express package distribution company.  The Company offers delivery of packages and documents in India and throughout the world.

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Blue Dart Express (BDE IN)

2020 Review & 2021 Key Themes | What Worked and What Has Not

A walk down the memory lane. What has worked, what has not, what have we learnt and how we think 2021 will pan out, this insight is our reflection...

Pranav Bhavsar

Kerry Express Thailand IPO Trading - Delivering a Christmas Present

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) raised around US$277m in its IPO. Given its brand recognition, strong investor backing and sole way to play the e...

Sumeet Singh

Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery

Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and...

Sumeet Singh

Kerry Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Overall, we...

Arun George

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | PayTM, Apple, Flipkart

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private...

Pranav Bhavsar

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