Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018</li>
<li>This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"</li>
<li>Some in the financial media (i.e. <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/fed-s-taper-talk-directed-at-bitcoin-and-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin</li>
<li>In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  </li>
<li>In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes</li>
<li>As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018
This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"
Some in the financial media (i.e. Bloomberg) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin
In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  
In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes
As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

<ul>
<li>In last month's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-text-mining-the-thematics-behind-gold-s-disappointing-fall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45821" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall</a> we observed a sharp decline in mentions of gold as an inflation hedge relative to a dramatic increase in mentions of Bitcoin in the same context in the media</li>
<li>Given aggressive signaling of institutional BTC adoption since, we revisit the topic of BTC vs. gold across a few vectors in effort to characterize the state of relative sentiment </li>
<li>Sentiment on BTC as a store of value is up +2x STDEVs to its highest in nearly a year, while sentiment on gold as a store of value has fallen -1.6x STDEVs to levels last seen in April, with no signs of improvement yet; volumetrically, media discussion of BTC as a store of value hit an all-time high in November and continues to increase</li>
<li>Faint signs of gold stabilization are seen in the inflation discussion, where mentions of gold in the context of inflation saw negative momentum peak at -2x STDEVs in November but have been steadying since; BTC mentions in an inflation context continued to increase sharply</li>
<li>Mentions of BTC in the context of institutional adoption began to surge 3-4x STDEVs last month, and continue to increase at the same rapid pace</li>
<li>FOMO or not, extremely low institutional &amp; family office ownership of BTC vs. elevated gold ownership provide relative tailwinds for the cryptocurrency (absent material vol spikes) while gold positioning has only partially unwound</li>
<li>At least one noted strategist cites gold's underperformance of BTC as a reason to buy bullion here, but we have yet to see a significant catalyst</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In last month's TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall we observed a sharp decline in mentions of gold as an inflation hedge relative to a dramatic increase in mentions of Bitcoin in the same context in the media
Given aggressive signaling of institutional BTC adoption since, we revisit the topic of BTC vs. gold across a few vectors in effort to characterize the state of relative sentiment 
Sentiment on BTC as a store of value is up +2x STDEVs to its highest in nearly a year, while sentiment on gold as a store of value has fallen -1.6x STDEVs to levels last seen in April, with no signs of improvement yet; volumetrically, media discussion of BTC as a store of value hit an all-time high in November and continues to increase
Faint signs of gold stabilization are seen in the inflation discussion, where mentions of gold in the context of inflation saw negative momentum peak at -2x STDEVs in November but have been steadying since; BTC mentions in an inflation context continued to increase sharply
Mentions of BTC in the context of institutional adoption began to surge 3-4x STDEVs last month, and continue to increase at the same rapid pace
FOMO or not, extremely low institutional &amp; family office ownership of BTC vs. elevated gold ownership provide relative tailwinds for the cryptocurrency (absent material vol spikes) while gold positioning has only partially unwound
At least one noted strategist cites gold's underperformance of BTC as a reason to buy bullion here, but we have yet to see a significant catalyst
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Bitcoin target US$25,000, given gold ‘fair value’ of US$2,500/oz</li>
<li>Bitcoin and gold respond to future monetary inflation unleashed by potential CBDC</li>
<li>CBDC will drive Central Bank balance sheets far higher</li>
<li>Future monetary policy levers will focus on credit growth and competitive devaluations</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin target US$25,000, given gold ‘fair value’ of US$2,500/oz
Bitcoin and gold respond to future monetary inflation unleashed by potential CBDC
CBDC will drive Central Bank balance sheets far higher
Future monetary policy levers will focus on credit growth and competitive devaluations


Coming Currency Wars Or Why The Price Of Bitcoin Could Double

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<p style="text-align: justify;">National digital currencies aside, there is one true ‘pretender’ to the role of alternative reference currency and numeraire and that is Bitcoin (and, potentially, its various spin-offs). There is a wealth of information on the Internet about Bitcoin and its underlying blockchain technology* but the essence of the original cryptocurrency is its scarcity (Bitcoin.org was registered as a domain in August 2008. In total, only 21 million Bitcoin will be produced by 2140, when the algorithm behind the code ends).</p>

National digital currencies aside, there is one true ‘pretender’ to the role of alternative reference currency and numeraire and that is Bitcoin (and, potentially, its various spin-offs). There is a wealth of information on the Internet about Bitcoin and its underlying blockchain technology* but the essence of the original cryptocurrency is its scarcity (Bitcoin.org was registered as a domain in August 2008. In total, only 21 million Bitcoin will be produced by 2140, when the algorithm behind the code ends).

Taels from the Crypt - Part 3: Bitcoin – The One, True Religion

<p>From what we know about the expansion of central bank balance sheets across the world in the last half-Century it is almost beyond parody that the Bank for International Settlements could make the following two claims on Page 93 of its <strong>Annual Economic Report</strong> 2018: </p><p>“The tried, trusted and resilient way to provide confidence in money in modern times is the independent central bank.” </p><p>“Independent central banks have largely achieved the goal of safeguarding society’s economic and political interest in a stable currency.”</p>

From what we know about the expansion of central bank balance sheets across the world in the last half-Century it is almost beyond parody that the Bank for International Settlements could make the following two claims on Page 93 of its Annual Economic Report 2018: “The tried, trusted and resilient way to provide confidence in money in modern times is the independent central bank.” “Independent central banks have largely achieved the goal of safeguarding society’s economic and political interest in a stable currency.”

Taels from the Crypt - Part 2: Stop Laughing at the Back!

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Talk of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation has surged 3x STDEVs, the most since 2018. Our data suggests this has more to do with the...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining

We text-mine for clues on gold vs. Bitcoin as competing stores of value. The divergence in sentiment remains unrelenting, with only faint signs of...

Elan Gore

Coming Currency Wars Or Why The Price Of Bitcoin Could Double

New popularity of Central Bank Digital Currency with policy-makers combined with MMT is a dangerous cocktail. Gold and Bitcoin are alternatives,...

Michael J. Howell

Taels from the Crypt - Part 3: Bitcoin – The One, True Religion

National digital currencies aside, there is one true ‘pretender’ to the role of alternative reference currency and numeraire and that is Bitcoin...

Dr. Jim Walker

Taels from the Crypt - Part 2: Stop Laughing at the Back!

From what we know about the expansion of central bank balance sheets across the world in the last half-Century it is almost beyond parody that the...

Dr. Jim Walker

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