Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> switched to an all-cash bid last week and entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a> has consistently traded through terms.</li>
<li>The key question is whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> will make a competing Offer. </li>
<li>BHP recently lost out to Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals in the competitive bidding situation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noront-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33397:1" rel="noopener">Noront Resources Ltd (NOSOF US)</a>, which boasts similar nickel mining reserves to Western Areas. </li>
</ul>


After IGO Ltd (IGO AU) switched to an all-cash bid last week and entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed, Western Areas (WSA AU) has consistently traded through terms.
The key question is whether BHP Group (BHP AU) will make a competing Offer. 
BHP recently lost out to Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals in the competitive bidding situation for Noront Resources Ltd (NOSOF US), which boasts similar nickel mining reserves to Western Areas. 


Western Areas/IGO: Will BHP Crash The Party?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The shareholder prospectus and circular were published on 8 December. Shareholders will vote on 20 January 2022. Unification is expected to complete by 31 January 2022.</li>
<li>The benefits for Plc shareholders are evident. Ltd shareholders should reap the rewards in the longer term. BHP US trades at 1.4% premium vs. BBL US. </li>
<li>The spread is expected to tighten further. The most convenient way to play it is though the Adr: Long BBL US, short BHP US.</li>
</ul>


The shareholder prospectus and circular were published on 8 December. Shareholders will vote on 20 January 2022. Unification is expected to complete by 31 January 2022.
The benefits for Plc shareholders are evident. Ltd shareholders should reap the rewards in the longer term. BHP US trades at 1.4% premium vs. BBL US. 
The spread is expected to tighten further. The most convenient way to play it is though the Adr: Long BBL US, short BHP US.


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announced yesterday that it had decided to proceed with the Unification idea. This is not surprising in the least. </li>
<li>When BHP announced the idea in August (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bhp-dlc-unification-on-dirt-diggers-and-deckchairs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) it was already well socialised internally. It needed some external socialisation. Social media promotions started the next day.</li>
<li>Now shareholders have not come out radically against, so this is confirmation the Meetings will be called and votes will go forward. The schedule is faster than thought.</li>
</ul>



BHP Group (BHP AU) announced yesterday that it had decided to proceed with the Unification idea. This is not surprising in the least. 
When BHP announced the idea in August (discussed here) it was already well socialised internally. It needed some external socialisation. Social media promotions started the next day.
Now shareholders have not come out radically against, so this is confirmation the Meetings will be called and votes will go forward. The schedule is faster than thought.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. </li>
<li>Since announcement of the Unification, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14531:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US)</a> discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US)</a> has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.</li>
<li>There will be selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (BLT LN)</a> from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, possibly in 2 tranches. </li>
</ul>


The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. 
Since announcement of the Unification, the BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US) discount to BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US) has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.
There will be selling on BHP Billiton (BLT LN) from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy BHP Group (BHP AU), possibly in 2 tranches. 


BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 2.1%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 8.6%; Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV for European holdcos have generally widened during November, following market volatility: Alba, 42.2%; GBL 30.5%; Heineken Holdings 16.4%; Industrivärden, 13.1%; Investor, 12%; Kinnevik B, 19.8% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Western Areas/IGO: Will BHP Crash The Party?

I'd look to enter around here, or closer to terms. Taking Western Ars under the fold makes a lot of sense towards the self-sufficiency of BHP's...

David Blennerhassett

BHP's DLC Unification: Update and Spread

The premium of BHP Ltd. vs. Plc. is expected to disappear upon the unification of the DLC, by 31 January 2022. The most convenient way is through...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BHP Unification: Flowfront Accelerated

BHP's Board of Directors announced Unification would go to shareholder votes. Circular out this week, and the vote 6 weeks later, and Unification...

Travis Lundy

BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

The BHP Board has approved the Unification and the UK line could stop trading on 28 January. The UK line will see selling from UK Index and STOXX...

Brian Freitas

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during November whilst discounts to NAV for selected European have generally widened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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