Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).</li>
<li>Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.</li>
</ul>


Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December, following the unification of BHP : BHP/BLT 1.3%; Rio Tinto AU/LN, 9.9% (widened); Shell, nil premium.
Discounts to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed performance: Alba, 42.7%; GBL, 30%; Heineken Holdings, 17.9%; Industrivärden, 14.4%; Investor AB, 7.5%; Kinnevik B, 22.4% (premium).
Recommended trades: BHP/BLT, GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden vs. listed assets.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com.  That interim dividend is ~ 3.0%. Not phenomenally large, but hints at possibilities to come. </li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham come over the top with an all-cash bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> as Carlyle remains silent after five weeks of due diligence.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share.  The "reasoning" is basically hogwash. </li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com.  That interim dividend is ~ 3.0%. Not phenomenally large, but hints at possibilities to come. 
Dye &amp; Durham come over the top with an all-cash bid for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) as Carlyle remains silent after five weeks of due diligence.

China Mobile (941 HK) has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share.  The "reasoning" is basically hogwash. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent /JD.com, Link Admin, China Mobile, Sydney Airport, Katakura

<ul>
<li>There are currently 45 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a>'s Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO (IGO AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bardoc-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4833:1" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold (BDC AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinythai-public-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14107:1" rel="noopener">Vinythai (VNT TB)</a>'s delisting Offer. </li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>'s Offer from Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1" rel="noopener">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 45 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals this week: Western Areas (WSA AU)'s Offer from IGO (IGO AU); Bardoc Gold (BDC AU) / St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) merger; Vinythai (VNT TB)'s delisting Offer. 
Keys updates took place for: Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)'s Offer from Dye &amp; Durham, Sydney Airport (SYD AU); and Katakura Industries (3001 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: IGO/Western Areas, Bardoc/St Barbara, Vinythai

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December. Discount to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed trends.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent /JD.com, Link Admin, China Mobile, Sydney Airport, Katakura

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: IGO/Western Areas, Bardoc/St Barbara, Vinythai

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December '21 Report

Premiums of selected DLC's have generally tightened during December. Discount to NAV of holdcos have shown mixed trends.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent /JD.com, Link Admin, China Mobile, Sydney Airport, Katakura

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: IGO/Western Areas, Bardoc/St Barbara, Vinythai

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March