IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>’s Board has unanimously recommended Wyloo’s unconditional off-market takeover bid at A$1.40 per share. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production quality issues.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of multiples (EV/Resource and EV/Reserve) but at a discount to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Shares are trading in line with terms.</li>
</ul>



Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)’s Board has unanimously recommended Wyloo’s unconditional off-market takeover bid at A$1.40 per share. The offer price is final. 
The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production quality issues.
The offer is attractive in terms of multiples (EV/Resource and EV/Reserve) but at a discount to recent share prices and analyst price targets. Shares are trading in line with terms.


Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a> said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> would <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02649202-6A1143054?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not agree to amend off-take agreement specifications</a>, and therefore would no longer accept lower-quality ore.</li>
<li>Mincor subsequently withdrew its earnings guidance, and Wyloo Metals shortly followed by declaring its A$1.40/share unconditional on-market Offer <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02650576-6A1143658?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">best and final</a>.</li>
<li>This morning (4 April), Mincor released its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02651163-6A1143881?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a>, and recommends shareholders accept the Offer from Wyloo.</li>
</ul>


Last week, Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU) said BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) would not agree to amend off-take agreement specifications, and therefore would no longer accept lower-quality ore.
Mincor subsequently withdrew its earnings guidance, and Wyloo Metals shortly followed by declaring its A$1.40/share unconditional on-market Offer best and final.
This morning (4 April), Mincor released its Target Statement, and recommends shareholders accept the Offer from Wyloo.


Mincor Backs Wyloo's Offer After BHP Offtake Uncertainties

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, Toyo. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shl-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11571:1" rel="noopener">SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo. 
Lowest spreads  Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), Trial Holdings (5882 JP), PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) and Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments  Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (02 Apr) - AAG, Liontown, Mincor, Toshiba, Rakuten Bank, Trial, Harita Nickel

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Production Issues Result in the Board Succumbing to Wyloo’s Offer

The Board has taken the path of least resistance by recommending the offer instead of rejecting the low-balled offer and addressing the production...

Arun George

Mincor Backs Wyloo's Offer After BHP Offtake Uncertainties

Wyloo's broker will be standing in the market at $1.40. Only buy above terms on the expectation of a competing Offer. Yet with Wyoloo holding 23%+,...

David Blennerhassett

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (38.1%), Alliance Aviation (37.3%), Genesis (22.8%), Estia (13.2%), Tyro (11.5%), AAG (10.1%), Toyo...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Apr) - AAG, Liontown, Mincor, Toshiba, Rakuten Bank, Trial, Harita Nickel

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Healius, Liontown, Mincor, Nitro, Origin, United Malt, AAG, Toshiba, Toyo, Golden Energy)...

Arun George

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