FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/820/original/Fig6.png?1451718588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4820"><figcaption class="figcaption">Top five macro trades in 2016Q1</figcaption></figure>In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. Top five macro trades in 2016Q1In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.</li><li class="p2">Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.</li><li class="p2">We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.</li><li class="p2">On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.</li><li class="p2">We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.</li></ul>Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Equity Bottom-Up

Failure of a tailings dam and damage to another at the 50%-&nbsp;owned Samarco iron ore mine in Brazil, in joint venture with&nbsp;Vale, is a disaster.The environmental mess and loss of life&nbsp;dents investor confidence at a time when sentiment for BHP&nbsp;Billiton is fragile as a result of falling commodity prices.Managing director Andrew Mackenzie has responded&nbsp;admirably in trying circumstances, promptly on the ground,&nbsp;offering sincere condolences and pledging BHP's full&nbsp;support in the recovery.That said, in no way do we put a&nbsp;positive spin on the event for BHP.Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; Mark Taylor

Failure of a tailings dam and damage to another at the 50%-&nbsp;owned Samarco iron ore mine in Brazil, in joint venture with&nbsp;Vale, is a disaster.The environmental mess and loss of life&nbsp;dents investor confidence at a time when sentiment for BHP&nbsp;Billiton is fragile as a result of falling commodity prices.Managing director Andrew Mackenzie has responded&nbsp;admirably in trying circumstances, promptly on the ground,&nbsp;offering sincere condolences and pledging BHP's full&nbsp;support in the recovery.That said, in no way do we put a&nbsp;positive spin on the event for BHP.Analysts: Mathew Hodge &amp; Mark Taylor

BHP Billiton's Exposure to Samarco Tailings Disaster

Australia

BHP Billiton PLC is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration and production.  Dually-listed company with BHP AU.

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BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US)

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping...

Greg Gibbs

Top 5 Macro Trades in 2016Q1

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be...

Hao Wang, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further...

Morningstar, Inc.

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

BHP Billiton's Exposure to Samarco Tailings Disaster

Failure of a tailings dam and damage to another at the 50%- owned Samarco iron ore mine in Brazil, in joint venture with Vale, is a disaster.The...

Morningstar, Inc.

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