Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> are shoo-ins to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ltimindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">LTIMindtree (LTIM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> trackers will need to trade at least 3.3x ADV and 7.7x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> trackers.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume has increased in all stocks but there are some stocks where there will still be more positioning over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) are shoo-ins to replace LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) and Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
Passive NIFTY Index trackers will need to trade at least 3.3x ADV and 7.7x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from Nifty Next 50 Index trackers.
Cumulative excess volume has increased in all stocks but there are some stocks where there will still be more positioning over the next few weeks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiary</li><li>Healthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)</li><li>Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiaryHealthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Currently, the share of natural gas in energy basket is just 6.7%, Which India is aiming for 15% by 2030.</li>
<li>Capex in Place- expanding the Dahej Plant, Petchem facility(20000Cr) will be operational in 4-5 years, Kochi utilization will improve</li>
<li>20% Volume Growth expected by Management, with a rising LNG portion in overall Gas Consumption in India.</li>
</ul>


Currently, the share of natural gas in energy basket is just 6.7%, Which India is aiming for 15% by 2030.
Capex in Place- expanding the Dahej Plant, Petchem facility(20000Cr) will be operational in 4-5 years, Kochi utilization will improve
20% Volume Growth expected by Management, with a rising LNG portion in overall Gas Consumption in India.


The Beat Ideas- Petronet LNG: Driving Growth in India's Natural Gas Sector

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

The official index changes for the NIFTY September 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 23rd August 2024. In this...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning

There are 2 high probability changes for the NIFTY in Sep. New stocks added to the FnO list could increase the number of changes. There is big flow...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the...

HDFC Securities

The Beat Ideas- Petronet LNG: Driving Growth in India's Natural Gas Sector

Petronet LNG: The Pure Play Natural Gas Player in India. Rising Energy Demand, Capex and upcoming Petchem project will drive the growth.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

There are at least four names eligible for NIFTY 50 addition in September 2024. However, the final count ADDs and DELs will be a discretionary...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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