Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

We view Bharat Petroleum​ Corporation Limited (BPCL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily due to its strategic importance to India and its SOE status (52.98% government-owned). It is the Indian government's vehicle to manage retail fuel prices. Thus, BPCL enjoys significant credit uplift. We like the company’s large scale and leading position in the oil & gas downstream sector. It owns many of the country's refineries, fuel stations and gas pipelines. However, BPCL remains exposed to volatility in crack spreads and crude prices, which affect its profitability. Capex requirements in its refinery, marketing and petrochemicals operations remain significant. BPCL's credit metrics are quite healthy. Our Credit Bias is “Negative” given India’s intended sale of its BPCL stake. The divestment is expected to be concluded in 2023, which could end the company's SOE status and trigger the Change of Control clause for its debt. Uncertainty over the buyer and hence the strength of BPCL’s new parent is a potential negative for the credit. We initiate coverage with a “Hold” recommendation on the BPCLIN notes.

  We view Bharat Petroleum​ Corporation Limited (BPCL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily due to its strategic importance to India and its SOE status (52.98% government-owned). It is the Indian government's vehicle to manage retail fuel prices. Thus, BPCL enjoys significant credit uplift. We like the company’s large scale and leading position in the oil & gas downstream sector. It owns many of the country's refineries, fuel stations and gas pipelines. However, BPCL remains exposed to volatility in crack spreads and crude prices, which affect its profitability. Capex requirements in its refinery, marketing and petrochemicals operations remain significant. BPCL's credit metrics are quite healthy.   Our Credit Bias is “Negative” given India’s intended sale of its BPCL stake. The divestment is expected to be concluded in 2023, which could end the company's SOE status and trigger the Change of Control clause for its debt. Uncertainty over the buyer and hence the strength of BPCL’s new parent is a potential negative for the credit.   We initiate coverage with a “Hold” recommendation on the BPCLIN notes. 

Bharat Petroleum - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kwg-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kwg Property Holding</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-steel-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Sunac China HoldingsKawasan Industri JababekaKwg Property HoldingTata Steel LtdChina Jinmao Holdingsand more...

This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update Following Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), SMC Global

SMC Online

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin decreased from 11.21% to 4.40%, leading to 26.64% decline in operating profit to Rs 3,125.00 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 28.11% to 37.52%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 48.39% to 50.86%. Employee cost decreased from 2.68% to 1.04%....
<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin decreased from 11.21% to 4.40%, leading to 26.64% decline in operating profit to Rs 3,125.00 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 28.11% to 37.52%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 48.39% to 50.86%. Employee cost decreased from 2.68% to 1.04%....
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Achieved Highest Ever Average Ethanol Blending of 8.95% During Q1FY22

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. There could be more changes if some large stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with Info Edge India (INFOE IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). There could be more changes if some large stocks like Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on Info Edge India (INFOE IN) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.Info Edge India (INFOE IN) trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

Bharat Petroleum - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily due to its strategic importance to India and its...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 06 May 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update Following Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine - Lucror Analytics

This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asia Monthly...

Lucror Analytics

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Achieved Highest Ever Average Ethanol Blending of 8.95% During Q1FY22

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin...

SMC Online

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

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Bharat Petroleum - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Bharat Petroleum​ Corporation Limited (BPCL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily due to its strategic importance to India and its...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 06 May 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update Following Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine - Lucror Analytics

This month, we provide an update on the developments in the Oil & Gas sector following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Asia Monthly...

Lucror Analytics

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Achieved Highest Ever Average Ethanol Blending of 8.95% During Q1FY22

Bharat Petroleum Corporation consolidated net sales increased 86.70% to Rs 70946.37 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Operating profit margin...

SMC Online

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

We view Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily due to its strategic importance to India and its...