External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has outperformed the Sensex by ~8% over the last 6M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~11% over the same period</li><li>We upgrade BPCL to a BUY, with a target price of INR 442/sh, owing to robust gross refining margins (GRMs), the sharp recovery in auto-fuel gross marketing margins owing to the decline in crude oil prices, and the reduction in LPG under-recoveries</li><li>Despite a rise in working capital requirement and higher capex in FY23, BPCL’s net debt/equity remains comfortable at 0.9x, which we expect will decline to 0.7x by FY25, even with a higher capex run rate of INR ~130bn over FY24/25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has outperformed the Sensex by ~8% over the last 6M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~11% over the same periodWe upgrade BPCL to a BUY, with a target price of INR 442/sh, owing to robust gross refining margins (GRMs), the sharp recovery in auto-fuel gross marketing margins owing to the decline in crude oil prices, and the reduction in LPG under-recoveriesDespite a rise in working capital requirement and higher capex in FY23, BPCL’s net debt/equity remains comfortable at 0.9x, which we expect will decline to 0.7x by FY25, even with a higher capex run rate of INR ~130bn over FY24/25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segment</li><li>Reported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexQ4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segmentReported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

<ul><li>We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMs</li><li>Upstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisations</li><li>We expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMsUpstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisationsWe expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

<ul><li>Godrej Consumers: GCPL’s consolidated revenue grew 7% YoY, with domestic/international clocking 8/6% YoY growth (9/8% three-year CAGR)</li><li>The Indian business continued to be led mainly by a high share of price hike (13% YoY), with domestic volume contracting by 5% YoY (three-year CAGR at 1% vs HUL’s 3%), impacted by HI</li><li>Personal care sustained 18% growth (price hike-led), while home care was up 2%, with a delayed monsoon-led weak season (expect a recovery in Q3)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Godrej Consumers: GCPL’s consolidated revenue grew 7% YoY, with domestic/international clocking 8/6% YoY growth (9/8% three-year CAGR)The Indian business continued to be led mainly by a high share of price hike (13% YoY), with domestic volume contracting by 5% YoY (three-year CAGR at 1% vs HUL’s 3%), impacted by HIPersonal care sustained 18% growth (price hike-led), while home care was up 2%, with a delayed monsoon-led weak season (expect a recovery in Q3)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Godrej Consumers, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Jubilant FoodWorks

<ul><li>State Bank of India: Despite a multi-quarter high loan growth (~16% YoY) and lower credit costs at 0.7% (annualised), SBIN missed expectations, driven by one-off MTM losses (INR65bn)</li><li>Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)</li><li>The management is confident of a sustained business momentum from improving utilisation of corporate credit limits and traction in SMEs, which should likely support incremental loan growth</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India: Despite a multi-quarter high loan growth (~16% YoY) and lower credit costs at 0.7% (annualised), SBIN missed expectations, driven by one-off MTM losses (INR65bn)Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)The management is confident of a sustained business momentum from improving utilisation of corporate credit limits and traction in SMEs, which should likely support incremental loan growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Bharat Petroleum Corporation

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

BPCL: Improving outlook, upgrade to BUY

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has outperformed the Sensex by ~8% over the last 6M, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated...

HDFC Securities

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Godrej Consumers, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Jubilant FoodWorks

Godrej Consumers: GCPL’s consolidated revenue grew 7% YoY, with domestic/international clocking 8/6% YoY growth (9/8% three-year CAGR)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)

HDFC Securities

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