Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.</li>
<li>BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.</li>
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BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.
Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.
BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.






BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> has been added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) has been added to the SET50 INDEX following the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Passive SET50 INDEX trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) at the close of trading today.
There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and Betagro (BTG TB), being added to the SET50 INDEX.


SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> is likely to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Then there should be one change in June with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.</li>
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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

<ul><li>A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion</li><li>4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)</li><li>Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)</li></ul>

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion4Q22E profit to grow 99% YoY but fall 23% QoQ. Three-year core profit growth to achieve a 9% CAGR (2022-24E)Strong financial position, with expected better debt to EBITDA. 2023E fair value derived at Bt40.40 (based on a PER of 10x)

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Global Health (Medanta) / Equity Capital Markets

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-health-medanta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34649:1" rel="noopener">Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN)</a> raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO.  </li>
<li>Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development. </li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.</li>
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Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO.  
Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development. 
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.


Global Health IPO Trading - Relatively Cheap and Good

Thailand

Betagro Public Company Limited manufactures agricultural food products. The Company offers animal feed, raises livestock, produces animal health products, and markets meat products for human consumption. Betagro serves customers worldwide.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

SAWAD will be added to the SET50 index at the close today following the DTAC/TRUE merger. TLI and BTG could then replace JMART and TIDLOR in June,...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SAWAD could be added to the index in March. Then TLI should replace JMART in June. INTUCH is a close delete on liquidity and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

Betagro - Three-Year Earnings to Achieve a 9% CAGR

A livestock producer with a vertically integrated business model. Planed Capex of Bt5.85bn in 2023E for capacity expansion

Krungthai XSpring

Global Health IPO Trading - Relatively Cheap and Good

Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) raised approximately US$268m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading...

Ethan Aw

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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