Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> is a very close delete on market cap, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.

Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) could replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).

JMT Network Services (JMT TB) is a very close delete on market cap, while Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CPF Global Food Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpf-global-food-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37132:1" rel="noopener">CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. </li>
<li>CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Muted Growth Prospects

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpf-global-food-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37132:1" rel="noopener">CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. </li>
<li>CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
CPF Global Food Solution (CPFGS) is a subsidiary of CP Foods Group, offering food products and services to food operators and consumers locally and internationally. 
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Positives - One of the Largest Players in the Industry

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.</li>
<li>BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>






BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and swine prices since the beginning of the year.
Our valuation metrics prompts us to revise down our rating to Underperform (from Outperform) because the share price is fully valued and implies no tactical upside.
BTG has revised down its 2023 sales growth target further to 5-10% (vs. 8-12% previously) because both swine and broiler prices have fallen sharply.






BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> has been added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) has been added to the SET50 INDEX following the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Passive SET50 INDEX trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) at the close of trading today.
There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and Betagro (BTG TB), being added to the SET50 INDEX.


SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

Thailand

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited produces and exports frozen and canned seafood products including frozen tuna loin, shrimp and cephalopod. The Company also produces canned pet foods from by products of its seafood process.  Additionally, the Company produces fish snack and canned tuna which are marketed locally.

Sappe Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes health drinks. The Company manufactures dietary and fruit juice drinks. Sappe distributes their products internationally.

President Bakery PCL produces and distributes a wide variety of baked goods to fast food restaurants and convenient stores.  The company also sells its product through its own retail stores under Farmhouse shop and Deliya by Farmhouse.

Ichitan Group PCL operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes a variety of tea beverages.

Thaitheparos PCL manufactures food seasoning products including flavor sauce, vinegar, chili sauce, tomato sauce, oyster sauce, chili and tomato sauce, soy sauce, and powdered sauce, under branded names.  The Company also produces canned fruits.

Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited produces and markets soybean cooking oil under its A-ngoon brand name.  Additionally, the Company produced other soybean products including soymeal, full-fat soy, cooked and un-extracted soybeanseed, and lecithin.  Its products are also used in industrial applications such as the production of paint or canned food.

GFPT Public Company Limited produces frozen chicken parts and distributes its products under GFPT, Common Food, and Nichirei Core.  The Company sells its products to domestic and export markets.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp PCL produces and distributes sugar to domestic and international clients.  The Company also produces bio products, which are used by-products from sugar production as raw materials, such as paper pulp from bagasse, and, ethanol from molasses and electrical energy from biomass.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp (KTIS TB)

Exotic Food Public Company Limited manufactures Thai food products that are sold in independent food stores globally.

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL produces sugar, energy and agricultural products. The Company produces sugar and molasses, fertilizers, ethanol, and electricity.

Xinjiang Tecon Animal Husbandry Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. is engaged in producing and distributing feeds and feed additives. The Company also produces and sells veterinary drugs, agricucutural and milk products.

Xinjiang Tecon Anml Hsbndry Bio Tchnlgy (002100 CH)

Visionox Technology Inc. manufactures electronic components. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells organic light emitting displays. Visionox Technology markets its products domestically and overseas.

Star Lake Bioscience Co., Inc. Zhaoqing Guangdong manufactures and markets biochemical pharmaceuticals and seasoning products, including inosine medicines, L-proline medicines, monosodium glutamate and other related products.  The Company also operates in real estate development.

Starlake Bioscience Co Inc Zhqng Gngdng (600866 CH)

Yunnan Energy Investment CO.,LTD manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces table salt, industrial salt, glauber salt, and other related products. Yunnan Energy Investment also participates in the natural gas industry.

Yunnan Salt & Chemical Industry Co., (002053 CH)

Hunan New Wellful Co., Ltd. operates pig farms and trades pigs. The Company exports pigs to Hong Kong and Macau as well as sells them domestically.

ARIAKE JAPAN Co., Ltd. produces natural seasonings and flavorings from meat products.  The Company sells the products to major food makers such as Ajinomoto Co., Ltd. and Myojo Foods Co., Ltd.  Ariake also has a plant in the United States.

Shree Renuka Sugars Limited is an integrated manufacturing company with a focus on sugar, distillery products and ethanol. The Company also generates power which is used for captive consumption besides being sold externally.

Del Monte Pacific Limited produces and markets packaged vegetable and fruit, beverage and culinary products. The Group has the exclusive right to use the Del Monte brand for packaged products in the USA, South America, Philippines, the Indian subcontinent and Myanmar, and the S&W brand for both packaged and fresh products globally except Australia and New Zealand.

Great Wall Enterprise Co., Ltd. produces and markets livestock feeds, cooking oils, and meat products.

Ottogi Corporation manufactures food seasonings and instant food, such as mayonnaise, ketchup, salad dressing, sesame and cooking oils, and instant curry. The Company also produces frozen salads, fruit preservatives, instant noodles, and canned tuna.

Betagro Public Company Limited manufactures agricultural food products. The Company offers animal feed, raises livestock, produces animal health products, and markets meat products for human consumption. Betagro serves customers worldwide.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

There could be 2 changes in June. +TLI/-JMART is the high probability change. +WHA is medium probability. JMT/TIDLOR could be the second delete....

Brian Freitas

CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Muted Growth Prospects

CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so...

Ethan Aw

CPF Global Food Solution Pre-IPO - The Positives - One of the Largest Players in the Industry

CPF Global Food Solution (2247162D TB) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive...

Ethan Aw

BETAGRO - Earnings Projections Cut; 2-Year Profit Estimated at A -18% CAGR

BTG’s two-year earnings (2022-24E) are expected to mark a -18% CAGR, vs. a +9% CAGR expected previously, owing to the sharp falls of broiler and...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

SAWAD will be added to the SET50 index at the close today following the DTAC/TRUE merger. TLI and BTG could then replace JMART and TIDLOR in June,...

Brian Freitas

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