Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financials, especially the large-cap brokers have suffered severe pullbacks recently. If these stocks cannot sustain a reversal in the next few days, we believe the markets could suffer a more severe pullback. Many of these names are suffering uptrend violations in price and RS, as well as bearish descending triangle patterns. The Sector is showing signs deteriorating breadth as well. In today’s report we highlight concerning charts within Financial Sector.

Financials, especially the large-cap brokers have suffered severe pullbacks recently. If these stocks cannot sustain a reversal in the next few days, we believe the markets could suffer a more severe pullback. Many of these names are suffering uptrend violations in price and RS, as well as bearish descending triangle patterns. The Sector is showing signs deteriorating breadth as well. In today’s report we highlight concerning charts within Financial Sector.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Financials Struggling, Tech and Energy Leading

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

Global Financials Positioning:  Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-equities-china-technology-and-politics-to-dominate-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15961">Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018</a>), the escalation of tension between the US and China could represent a watershed moment for expectations of global growth and the future of emerging markets, as the post-1991 settlement which facilitated the globalisation of trade and investment flows and kick-started the peace dividend, begins to partially unravel. Against this backdrop, none of the major emerging equity markets offers a combination of attractive valuations together with good or improving sovereign and/or corporate governance factors. This leaves me once again clinging to those markets, such as Thailand, Mexico, Qatar, Taiwan, the Philippines and possibly India, which appear to have defensive qualities, including a relatively low exposure to the direct or indirect effects of the ‘Cold War II’, as the best way to generate relative outperformance.

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018), the escalation of tension between the US and China could represent a watershed moment for expectations of global growth and the future of emerging markets, as the post-1991 settlement which facilitated the globalisation of trade and investment flows and kick-started the peace dividend, begins to partially unravel. Against this backdrop, none of the major emerging equity markets offers a combination of attractive valuations together with good or improving sovereign and/or corporate governance factors. This leaves me once again clinging to those markets, such as Thailand, Mexico, Qatar, Taiwan, the Philippines and possibly India, which appear to have defensive qualities, including a relatively low exposure to the direct or indirect effects of the ‘Cold War II’, as the best way to generate relative outperformance.

Emerging Markets Have the Most to Lose from the New ‘Cool War’

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Over the observable past using index data and Fama-French "6-portfolio" data (the data intersections of small cap and large cap with Value, Neutral, and Growth profiles) per 'decade' (10-day period), seasonality data suggests that Q4 has...<ul>
<li>a higher win/loss ratio than the average of Q1-Q3 in the US</li>
<li>a lower win/loss ratio among portfolios than the Q1-Q3 average in Japan,</li>
<li>a lower win/loss ratio for SMALL, and a higher win/loss ratio for BIG in Europe and Asia ex-Japan</li>
<li>a VERY clear propensity for…</li>
</ul>

Over the observable past using index data and Fama-French "6-portfolio" data (the data intersections of small cap and large cap with Value, Neutral, and Growth profiles) per 'decade' (10-day period), seasonality data suggests that Q4 has...
a higher win/loss ratio than the average of Q1-Q3 in the US
a lower win/loss ratio among portfolios than the Q1-Q3 average in Japan,
a lower win/loss ratio for SMALL, and a higher win/loss ratio for BIG in Europe and Asia ex-Japan
a VERY clear propensity for…


Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:<ul><li>Semis... see page 14-20</li><li>Insurers... see page 8-13</li></ul>

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:Semis... see page 14-20Insurers... see page 8-13

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

United States

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries in a variety of business sectors.  The Company's principal operations are insurance business conducted nationwide on a primary basis and worldwide on a reinsurance basis. Berkshire's other operations include a railway company, a specialty chemical company, and an international association of diversified businesses.

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Financials Struggling, Tech and Energy Leading

Financials, especially the large-cap brokers have suffered severe pullbacks recently. If these stocks cannot sustain a reversal in the next few...

Vermilion Research

Global Financials Positioning: Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest...

Steven Holden

Emerging Markets Have the Most to Lose from the New ‘Cool War’

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018), the escalation...

John-Paul Smith

Global Equity Seasonality: Q4 Trends

Over the observable past using index data and Fama-French "6-portfolio" data (the data intersections of small cap and large cap with Value,...

Travis Lundy

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering...

Vermilion Research

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