Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China’s gaming regulator granted publishing licenses to 88 video games including three licenses to Tencent (for Undawn, Alchemy Stars and Yuan Meng Zhi Xing) and one for NetEase (for Badlanders).</li>
<li>In December, NPPA gave approvals to 84 new domestic games and 44 imported games suggesting the 18-month long crackdown on the sector is nearing an end.</li>
<li>Tencent’s online games revenue declined YoY for three consecutive quarters with regulatory hurdles and drop in ranking of key titles but we expect an improvement going into 2023.</li>
</ul>


China’s gaming regulator granted publishing licenses to 88 video games including three licenses to Tencent (for Undawn, Alchemy Stars and Yuan Meng Zhi Xing) and one for NetEase (for Badlanders).
In December, NPPA gave approvals to 84 new domestic games and 44 imported games suggesting the 18-month long crackdown on the sector is nearing an end.
Tencent’s online games revenue declined YoY for three consecutive quarters with regulatory hurdles and drop in ranking of key titles but we expect an improvement going into 2023.


Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>IQiyi announced a follow-on equity offering of 76.5m ADS priced at $5.90 per ADS (at a 11% discount to previous close) and will raise approx. $442.3m through the issuance.</li>
<li>Each ADS represents seven Class A ordinary shares and the new equity offering of 76.5m ADS will account for approx. 8.5% of iQiyi’s extended share capital post offering.</li>
<li>Following the announcement, the company’s shares fell 16.4% and we think the upside is limited here.</li>
</ul>


IQiyi announced a follow-on equity offering of 76.5m ADS priced at $5.90 per ADS (at a 11% discount to previous close) and will raise approx. $442.3m through the issuance.
Each ADS represents seven Class A ordinary shares and the new equity offering of 76.5m ADS will account for approx. 8.5% of iQiyi’s extended share capital post offering.
Following the announcement, the company’s shares fell 16.4% and we think the upside is limited here.


IQiyi Follow-On Offer: Shifting Focus to Profits No Longer Sustainable

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>IQIYI aims to raise around US$500m via a follow-on ADS offering.</li>
<li>While the company hasn’t stated its use of proceeds, it will probably use most of it to redeem convertible notes</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


IQIYI aims to raise around US$500m via a follow-on ADS offering.
While the company hasn’t stated its use of proceeds, it will probably use most of it to redeem convertible notes
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.


IQIYI Follow-On Offering - Might Be Expected but Its Track Record Is...

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Short video continued to accumulate active users in China and the company’s light-version grew the most rapidly.</li>
<li>We believe the revenue growth rate will rise from 2Q23 and the company will have positive operating profit from 2024.</li>
<li>We set the price target at HK$103, which is 44% over the market price.</li>
</ul>


Short video continued to accumulate active users in China and the company’s light-version grew the most rapidly.
We believe the revenue growth rate will rise from 2Q23 and the company will have positive operating profit from 2024.
We set the price target at HK$103, which is 44% over the market price.


Kuaishou (1024 HK): Expanding Market, Will See Higher Growth and Profit

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely Automobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 13th): Tencent Profit Taking

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Tencent: Gaming on the Road to Recovery

Tencent’s online games revenue declined YoY for three consecutive quarters with regulatory hurdles and drop in ranking of key titles, but we expect...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

IQiyi Follow-On Offer: Shifting Focus to Profits No Longer Sustainable

iQiyi announced a follow-on offer to raise $442.3m. Recent shift in focus on profits from growth was short-lived. Recent convertible notes to PAG...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

IQIYI Follow-On Offering - Might Be Expected but Its Track Record Is...

iQIYI aims to raise around US$500m via a follow-on ADS offering. While the deal might be expected, the stock's longer term track record doesn't...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou (1024 HK): Expanding Market, Will See Higher Growth and Profit

Short video continued to accumulate active users in China and the company’s light-version grew the most rapidly. We believe the revenue growth rate...

Ming Lu

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 13th): Tencent Profit Taking

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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