Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 3 changes for the index, and we estimate one-way turnover of 1.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 570m (US$79m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexchip-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40390:1" rel="noopener">Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-nova-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40389:1" rel="noopener">United Nova Technology (688469 CH)</a> are adds to other indices as well and the impact on the stocks will be a lot higher.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
There are 3 changes for the index, and we estimate one-way turnover of 1.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 570m (US$79m).

Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) and United Nova Technology (688469 CH) are adds to other indices as well and the impact on the stocks will be a lot higher.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Inclusions for the Adds

<ul>
<li>There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.3x ADV in the stocks.</li>
<li>There will be selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981 CH)</a> to cap the stock at 10% of the index weight.</li>
</ul>


There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 December.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.3x ADV in the stocks.
There will be selling in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981 CH) to cap the stock at 10% of the index weight.


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology led the inflows while Consumer Staples, Financials led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism, Longi Green, Ping An, Zijin Mining, Haitian Flavoring.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology led the inflows while Consumer Staples, Financials led the outflows.
We highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism, Longi Green, Ping An, Zijin Mining, Haitian Flavoring.


Northbound Flows Monthly (June): Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy

China

Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures semiconductor products. The Company produces semiconductor automated test systems, test system accessories, and other products. Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology also operates import and export businesses.

Beijing Huafeng Test & Control (688200 CH)

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Beijing Huafeng Test & Control (688200 CH)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Inclusions for the Adds

There are 3 changes for the index in December. Couple of the adds have multiple index inclusions and more potential inclusions to come over the...

Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

There could be 3 changes in Dec with passives needing to trade 0.-0.3x ADV in the stocks. SMIC will be capped at 10% of the index weight. Some...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows Monthly (June): Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for Midea, Foxconn, CATL, Wuxi Apptec, Sany Heavy, China Tourism,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)