Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A.

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A. 

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Enterprises Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

Our fair value estimate for BEH is HKD 58.00 per share. Our discounted cash flow-derived fair value estimate implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings multiple of 12 times and an enterprise value/EBITDA ratio of 9 times.These metrics are slightly lower than the historical average for the five years ended 2015, reflecting our concerns over potential transmission tariff cuts, as well as slower natural gas consumption amid weakening China growth.Analyst: Jennifer Song

Our fair value estimate for BEH is HKD 58.00 per share. Our discounted cash flow-derived fair value estimate implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings multiple of 12 times and an enterprise value/EBITDA ratio of 9 times.These metrics are slightly lower than the historical average for the five years ended 2015, reflecting our concerns over potential transmission tariff cuts, as well as slower natural gas consumption amid weakening China growth.Analyst: Jennifer Song

Beijing's Antipollution Actions Should Drive Robust Gas Demand, and BEH Stands to Benefit.

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.</li><li>Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.</li><li>RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.</li></ul>

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains sluggish• Investors’ interest reignited in dry bulk stocks amid the rally in Baltic indices• Gas shipping stocks getting back on investors’ radar; Gaslog emerges as the top performer• Amid container industry realignment, price performance a mixed bag• Correction in tanker stock valuations inevitable as freight rates to soften further • Well-ingrained dampeners surprise with growth for ports

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains sluggish• Investors’ interest reignited in dry bulk stocks amid the rally in Baltic indices• Gas shipping stocks getting back on investors’ radar; Gaslog emerges as the top performer• Amid container industry realignment, price performance a mixed bag• Correction in tanker stock valuations inevitable as freight rates to soften further • Well-ingrained dampeners surprise with growth for ports

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Hong Kong

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. is a diversified company.  The Company brews beer; distributes natural gas through pipelines; invests in, designs, constructs and operates water supply and wastewater treatment plants; operates toll roads; disposes of hazardous waste; and offers electronic payment systems.

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Beijing Enterprises Hldgs (392 HK)

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Beijing's Antipollution Actions Should Drive Robust Gas Demand, and BEH Stands to Benefit.

Our fair value estimate for BEH is HKD 58.00 per share. Our discounted cash flow-derived fair value estimate implies a forward fiscal-year...

Morningstar, Inc.

Marketnomix Country Insights - China

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy. Slowing economy together with declining with FX...

Rajan Govil

DMER Equity Insights - May 2016

Mixed monetary stance adopted by the central banks; dry bulk shipping stage a comeback• China’s thrust is on credit expansion, but growth remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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