HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Although people acknowledged BeiGene's performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven. </li>
<li>BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&amp;A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.</li>
<li>If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.</li>
</ul>


Although people acknowledged BeiGene's performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven. 
BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&amp;A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.
If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

<ul>
<li>Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. </li>
<li>BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.</li>
<li>We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> is undervalued.   </li>
</ul>


Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. 
BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.
We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. BeiGene (6160 HK) is undervalued.   


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Biologics signs manufacturing deals worth over $668M with European pharmaceutical company. Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, a specialty pharmaceutical distribution company in Switzerland. Kyowa Kirin collaborates for leukemia drug.</li>
<li>Takeda launched Hutchmed’s colorectal cancer drug Fruzaqla in Japan. FDA has turned down Astellas Pharma’s application for label update of geographic atrophy drug Izervay. Lunit is partnering with AstraZeneca.</li>
<li>Yuhan is one step ahead for European approval of Leclaza. HK inno.N signs domestic supply contract for Roche’s influenza treatment, Tamiflu. Beigene settles litigation against generic filer of Brukinsa.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Biologics signs manufacturing deals worth over $668M with European pharmaceutical company. Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, a specialty pharmaceutical distribution company in Switzerland. Kyowa Kirin collaborates for leukemia drug.
Takeda launched Hutchmed’s colorectal cancer drug Fruzaqla in Japan. FDA has turned down Astellas Pharma’s application for label update of geographic atrophy drug Izervay. Lunit is partnering with AstraZeneca.
Yuhan is one step ahead for European approval of Leclaza. HK inno.N signs domestic supply contract for Roche’s influenza treatment, Tamiflu. Beigene settles litigation against generic filer of Brukinsa.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 24)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Takeda, Kyowa Kirin, Astellas Pharma

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).</li>
<li>Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).
Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.


HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

Due to quick pick-up of expenses, breakeven is more challenging. BeiGene hasn't proved its profitability. If it indeed has a plan to turn loss into...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 24)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Takeda, Kyowa Kirin, Astellas Pharma

Samsung Biologics secures new manufacturing deals, Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, Takeda launches colorectal cancer drug in Japan, and...

Tina Banerjee

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

In a surprise, there are no adds/deletes in March. There are some large capping changes that result in a one-way turnover of 2.6% and a one-way...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

Due to quick pick-up of expenses, breakeven is more challenging. BeiGene hasn't proved its profitability. If it indeed has a plan to turn loss into...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 24)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Takeda, Kyowa Kirin, Astellas Pharma

​Samsung Biologics secures new manufacturing deals, Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, Takeda launches colorectal cancer drug in Japan, and...

Tina Banerjee

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

In a surprise, there are no adds/deletes in March. There are some large capping changes that result in a one-way turnover of 2.6% and a one-way...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

Samsung Biologics secures new manufacturing deals, Celltrion is acquiring iQone Healthcare, Takeda launches colorectal cancer drug in Japan, and...