Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due to disposal of incubator investments.</li>
<li>The cash balance of 34% of total assets and over 49% of market cap, supports the ongoing buyback trend even if incubator divestments take longer than expected.</li>
<li>Hence, we expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a>’s Holdco discount to move closer to the 20% mark, potentially resulting in a 75% upside in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due to disposal of incubator investments.
The cash balance of 34% of total assets and over 49% of market cap, supports the ongoing buyback trend even if incubator divestments take longer than expected.
Hence, we expect Beenos Inc (3328 JP)’s Holdco discount to move closer to the 20% mark, potentially resulting in a 75% upside in the short term.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> results beat with revenue at ¥7.2bn (+4.6% vs consensus) and OP of ¥431m (+21.4% vs consensus).</li>
<li>FY22 guidance was raised across Beenos’ core e-commerce businesses due to the favourable impact of the yen depreciation on overseas demand and changes to shipping methods and rates.</li>
<li>What caught our eye the most was Beenos’ decision to gradually realise gains from its VC investments.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) results beat with revenue at ¥7.2bn (+4.6% vs consensus) and OP of ¥431m (+21.4% vs consensus).
FY22 guidance was raised across Beenos’ core e-commerce businesses due to the favourable impact of the yen depreciation on overseas demand and changes to shipping methods and rates.
What caught our eye the most was Beenos’ decision to gradually realise gains from its VC investments.


Beenos Decides to Lock-In Profits from Incubator Investments

<ul>
<li>Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.</li>
<li>Although the market treated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.</li>
<li>Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.</li>
</ul>


Monotaro’s 1Q22 topline was broadly in line with expectations but OP overshot consensus and company guidance by ¥355m and ¥396m respectively as SG&amp;A fell short of the plan by ¥435m.
Although the market treated MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) as a pandemic stock, it has stronger fundamentals than most pandemic winners.
Shares are not cheap enough to be outright bullish but it is still a decent long hedge to short many other low-quality names.


<ul>
<li>Leading up to the GoTo IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.</li>
<li>It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.</li>
</ul>


Leading up to the GoTo IPO, Beenos Inc (3328 JP) shares rallied more than 80% to ¥2,364 per share, possibly expecting substantial listing gains from the “conservatively” priced GoTo IPO.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) opened around 18% above its IPO price on 11th April 2022, but Beenos fell by around 7% and 8% on 11th and 12th April 2022 respectively.
It may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, but exposure to a high-profile company like GoTo brings visibility, resulting in a much narrower NAV discount.


Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>Among many e-commerce names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a> is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.</li>
<li>Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.</li>
<li>At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Among many e-commerce names, MonotaRO Co Ltd (3064 JP) is one of the most promising with operating profitability predicted to improve by 200 bps to 14.0% by 2023.
Unlike many e-commerce players, the company doesn’t strain itself financially while pursuing revenue growth through expansion.
At 35.8x OP, MonotaRo is not cheap to be outright bullish. However, it is a reasonable long hedge to allow you to short a lot of other names in e-commerce.


Japan

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

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Beenos Inc (3328 JP)

Beenos: Ramps Up Buybacks

Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos Decides to Lock-In Profits from Incubator Investments

We think the realisation of profits from these investments could lead to a higher overall payout (dividend and buybacks), which could bring...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MonotaRo: Not a Pandemic Stock

With the share price down 51% from the peak at one point, markets discounted MonotaRo alongside the rest of the pandemic stocks, even though the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Beenos Valuation: SOTP Suggests Plenty of Upside Potential

Although it may be too late to ride the GoTo IPO rally, we think that there’s further upside over the medium-term as exposure to a high-profile...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MonotaRo: A Rare Winner in E-Commerce

While most e-commerce players are fighting each other and the e-commerce arms of traditional businesses, MonotaRo operates in a niche with very...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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