Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Philippine National Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

It has taken some time, but finally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/233" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:233:1">Philippine National Bank (PNB PM)</a> is being recognized by the market.  To us though, this is only the beginning. The story with PNB has for a long time been about a turnaround, moving from a sleepy state-owned bank focused on large corporate loans and with a high level of bad loans, to a more invigorated bank with far better credit quality and a new focus on the consumer.  The recent milestone of paying a special dividend was a clear sign of how the bank improved since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC).  The market is now awakening to what a new CEO can do with PNB and one who comes from HSBC Philippines. Still PNB’s market capitalization is only 9% of assets compared with 14-20% for the largest three peer banks. There appears a lot more to come.

It has taken some time, but finally Philippine National Bank (PNB PM) is being recognized by the market.  To us though, this is only the beginning. The story with PNB has for a long time been about a turnaround, moving from a sleepy state-owned bank focused on large corporate loans and with a high level of bad loans, to a more invigorated bank with far better credit quality and a new focus on the consumer.  The recent milestone of paying a special dividend was a clear sign of how the bank improved since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC).  The market is now awakening to what a new CEO can do with PNB and one who comes from HSBC Philippines. Still PNB’s market capitalization is only 9% of assets compared with 14-20% for the largest three peer banks. There appears a lot more to come. 

Philippine National Bank – The Beginning of Recognition

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/233" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:233:1">Philippine National Bank (PNB PM)</a> continues to go unnoticed.  We are doubtful that this will last indefinitely. This is especially the case given the size of PNB in Philippine banking and its impressive transformation. It remains one of the best turnaround stories in Asia-Pacific, where its bad loans have come down dramatically, its returns have risen and where profit growth is amongst the most robust in all the region. PNB is at a paltry 0.4x PB and 4.4x PE, but with 19% average annual profit growth and ROA in excess of 1%,. Its market capitalization is only 5.4% of assets and there is no major bank in the region at this low level and yet with an ROA as high as that of PNB. With its 3Q18 results just out, revealing ongoing positive change, it is not likely that this bank will remain unnoticed.

Philippine National Bank (PNB PM) continues to go unnoticed.  We are doubtful that this will last indefinitely. This is especially the case given the size of PNB in Philippine banking and its impressive transformation. It remains one of the best turnaround stories in Asia-Pacific, where its bad loans have come down dramatically, its returns have risen and where profit growth is amongst the most robust in all the region. PNB is at a paltry 0.4x PB and 4.4x PE, but with 19% average annual profit growth and ROA in excess of 1%,. Its market capitalization is only 5.4% of assets and there is no major bank in the region at this low level and yet with an ROA as high as that of PNB. With its 3Q18 results just out, revealing ongoing positive change, it is not likely that this bank will remain unnoticed.

Philippine National Bank – A Giant Gem, Still Undiscovered

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

There are a few things that have taken place in the past few months for MyEG; share price of MyEG has been sold off due to a close association with the fallen of the previous PM, changing from GST to SST that presumably may reduce revenue from the GST filing, signed an MOA with Bangladesh government - a mixed bag of negative and positive driver to the group's business. In this report, we will try to answer the following question:<ol>
<li>share price sold off - what is the implication to the valuation</li>
<li>changing from GST to SST - what is the impact to the group's revenue</li>
<li>non-concessionary venture</li>
<li>e-government service to other countries</li>
<li>what shall we do with the current valuation; buy, hold or sell?</li>
</ol>

There are a few things that have taken place in the past few months for MyEG; share price of MyEG has been sold off due to a close association with the fallen of the previous PM, changing from GST to SST that presumably may reduce revenue from the GST filing, signed an MOA with Bangladesh government - a mixed bag of negative and positive driver to the group's business. In this report, we will try to answer the following question:
share price sold off - what is the implication to the valuation
changing from GST to SST - what is the impact to the group's revenue
non-concessionary venture
e-government service to other countries
what shall we do with the current valuation; buy, hold or sell?


Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform using the Discovery Tool.  See the attached report for a complete list of our recommendations from this list.

Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform using the Discovery Tool.  See the attached report for a complete list of our recommendations from this list.

Philippines

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

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BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)

Philippine National Bank – The Beginning of Recognition

It has taken some time, but finally Philippine National Bank (PNB PM) is being recognized by the market. To us though, this is only the beginning....

Daniel Tabbush

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Philippine National Bank – A Giant Gem, Still Undiscovered

Philippine National Bank (PNB PM) continues to go unnoticed. We are doubtful that this will last indefinitely. This is especially the case given...

Daniel Tabbush

MyEG (MYEG): Revenge of the Fallen

There are a few things that have taken place in the past few months for MyEG; share price of MyEG has been sold off due to a close association with...

Henry Soediarko

Popular Stocks, Attractive Charts

Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform...

Vermilion Research

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