Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ),in-line with our expectation. Seasonally stronger hydro plant operations from Lao PDR drove QoQ</li>
<li>Strong hydro plant operations drove 3Q22 results The 3Q22 net profit grew 94% QoQ to Bt640m (-7% YoY) driven by an FX gain of Bt167m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). </li>
<li>Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ). The YoY drop was due to a lower revenue contribution </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ),in-line with our expectation. Seasonally stronger hydro plant operations from Lao PDR drove QoQ
Strong hydro plant operations drove 3Q22 results The 3Q22 net profit grew 94% QoQ to Bt640m (-7% YoY) driven by an FX gain of Bt167m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). 
Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ). The YoY drop was due to a lower revenue contribution 


BCPG : Strong Hydro Plant Operations Drove 3Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40.We expect BCPG’s 3Q22 core earnings to improve 25%QoQ from hydro power plant operation in Lao PDR(Nam San 3A&amp;3B), supported by strong seasonality.</li>
<li>Strong QoQ rise in 3Q22 on seasonality We expect 3Q22 core profit to grow 25%QoQ to Bt556m (+10% YoY).The QoQ growth will be driven by a 106% rise in electricity </li>
<li>We estimate a robust net profit growth of 110% QoQ in 3Q22 to Bt694m from an FX gain of Bt138m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). The profit is relatively flat YoY.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40.We expect BCPG’s 3Q22 core earnings to improve 25%QoQ from hydro power plant operation in Lao PDR(Nam San 3A&amp;3B), supported by strong seasonality.
Strong QoQ rise in 3Q22 on seasonality We expect 3Q22 core profit to grow 25%QoQ to Bt556m (+10% YoY).The QoQ growth will be driven by a 106% rise in electricity 
We estimate a robust net profit growth of 110% QoQ in 3Q22 to Bt694m from an FX gain of Bt138m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). The profit is relatively flat YoY.


BCPG : Positive 3Q22 Earnings Backed by Strong Seasonality

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating     with revised target price of Bt13.40  (-19% from previous TP). BCPG’s 2Q22 core profit was         in-line at Bt549m (9% YoY, 6% QoQ), The YoY and QoQ</li>
<li>COD Japanese projects drove 2Q22 result The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt330mn(-42% YoY, -76% QoQ),a 2-quarter low. The QoQ earnings drop was due to absence of one-time gain booked </li>
<li>Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt549m (+9% YoY,+6% QoQ). The YoY and QoQ growth were attributed to revenue recognition </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating     with revised target price of Bt13.40  (-19% from previous TP). BCPG’s 2Q22 core profit was         in-line at Bt549m (9% YoY, 6% QoQ), The YoY and QoQ
COD Japanese projects drove 2Q22 result The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt330mn(-42% YoY, -76% QoQ),a 2-quarter low. The QoQ earnings drop was due to absence of one-time gain booked 
Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt549m (+9% YoY,+6% QoQ). The YoY and QoQ growth were attributed to revenue recognition 


BCPG : New Project COD in Japan Drove 2Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>BCPG’s 4Q21 net profit fall to Bt238m (-24% YoY, -65% QoQ),a 16-quarter low, mainly dragged by FX loss. The recurring profit stood at Bt583m (+9% YoY,-18% QoQ),inline with our expectation</li>
<li>The revenue recognition from new 20MW project in Japan (4Q21) resulted the YoY growth. While QoQ drop was due to seasonal weak hydro operation.</li>
<li>The company announced divestment of its full stake (33%) in Indonesia geothermal power project. BCPG will book a gain of B1.6bn from the deal</li>
</ul>


BCPG’s 4Q21 net profit fall to Bt238m (-24% YoY, -65% QoQ),a 16-quarter low, mainly dragged by FX loss. The recurring profit stood at Bt583m (+9% YoY,-18% QoQ),inline with our expectation
The revenue recognition from new 20MW project in Japan (4Q21) resulted the YoY growth. While QoQ drop was due to seasonal weak hydro operation.
The company announced divestment of its full stake (33%) in Indonesia geothermal power project. BCPG will book a gain of B1.6bn from the deal


BCPG: Gain from Indonesia Asset Divestment

<ul>
<li>Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. BCPG announced plan to develop solar farms in Taiwan. The initially outlined capacity is 170MW and target to expand1-to-2GW in future</li>
<li>Positive view on the Taiwan project, as it will help BCPG in securing long term growth. Moreover, the project delivers a decent IRR of 10%. We estimate this to bring </li>
<li>EBITDA gap from expiry of adder for 118MW solar projects in Thailand during 2022-25 to be fully offset by new project additions.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. BCPG announced plan to develop solar farms in Taiwan. The initially outlined capacity is 170MW and target to expand1-to-2GW in future
Positive view on the Taiwan project, as it will help BCPG in securing long term growth. Moreover, the project delivers a decent IRR of 10%. We estimate this to bring 
EBITDA gap from expiry of adder for 118MW solar projects in Thailand during 2022-25 to be fully offset by new project additions.


BCPG: 21% Capacity Expansion from New Taiwan Project

Thailand

BCPG Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity generated from renewable energy. The Company specializes in solar power with a focuses on the investment, development, and management of renewable power plants.

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BCPG PCL (BCPG TB)

BCPG : Strong Hydro Plant Operations Drove 3Q22 Earnings

Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12% YoY, +14% QoQ),in-line with our expectation.Seasonally stronger...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCPG : Positive 3Q22 Earnings Backed by Strong Seasonality

Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. We expect BCPG’s 3Q22 core earnings to improve 25% QoQ from hydro power plant operation in Lao PDR (Nam San...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCPG : New Project COD in Japan Drove 2Q22 Profit

Maintain BUY rating with revised target price of Bt13.40 (-19% from previous TP). BCPG’s 2Q22 core profit was in-line at Bt549m (9% YoY, 6% QoQ),...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCPG: Gain from Indonesia Asset Divestment

BCPG’s 4Q21 net profit fall to Bt238m (-24% YoY, -65% QoQ), a 16-quarter low, mainly dragged by FX loss. The recurring profit stood at Bt583m (+9%...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCPG: 21% Capacity Expansion from New Taiwan Project

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. BCPG announced plan to develop solar farms in Taiwan. The initially outlined capacity is...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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