Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Shandong Gold Mining   / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27455" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1">Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK)</a> ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock traded between HK$14.68-$14.72/share and closed at HK$14.70/share.In absence of any strong triggers in the short-term, we expect the stock to drift down post-stabilisation period or after one week of trading as evidenced in Global Equity Research‘s note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-trading-strategy-from-pop-to-flop-a-deep-dive-on-hk-ipo-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24258">IPO Trading Strategy: From Pop to Flop? A Deep-Dive on HK IPO Performance</a> published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1486" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1486">Rickin Thakrar</a>. Our base case valuation remains HK$11.10/share.

Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK) ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock traded between HK$14.68-$14.72/share and closed at HK$14.70/share.In absence of any strong triggers in the short-term, we expect the stock to drift down post-stabilisation period or after one week of trading as evidenced in Global Equity Research‘s note IPO Trading Strategy: From Pop to Flop? A Deep-Dive on HK IPO Performance published by Rickin Thakrar. Our base case valuation remains HK$11.10/share.  

Shandong Gold Trading Update: First Day No Show

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12908:1">Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH)</a> has recently filed a revised PHIP. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9e62624c-ac4b-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619" target="_blank">Financial Times reports</a> that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B and it appears to have received approval from the Hong Kong listing committee to sell ~380M shares. The company has still not provided pricing details of the IPO and H1/18 results. What's new is gold prices have fallen nearly ~8% YTD, as a result, we believe if the gold prices range ~US$1200/oz for rest of year the company is likely to report a net loss for the H2/18. We continue to be negative on IPO based on the company’s financial, however, we reserve our judgment until the IPO pricing is provided.

Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH) has recently filed a revised PHIP. Financial Times reports that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B and it appears to have received approval from the Hong Kong listing committee to sell ~380M shares. The company has still not provided pricing details of the IPO and H1/18 results. What's new is gold prices have fallen nearly ~8% YTD, as a result, we believe if the gold prices range ~US$1200/oz for rest of year the company is likely to report a net loss for the H2/18. We continue to be negative on IPO based on the company’s financial, however, we reserve our judgment until the IPO pricing is provided.

Shandong Gold IPO Preview: Trim Hedges & Improve Margins, But Can They Do It

United States

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (GOLD US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Deteriorating...Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however,...

Vermilion Research

Shandong Gold Trading Update: First Day No Show

Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK) ’s first day of trading ended with a whimper. The company issued the stock at HK$14.70/share. The stock...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Shandong Gold IPO Preview: Trim Hedges & Improve Margins, But Can They Do It

Shandong Gold Mining Co., (600547 CH) has recently filed a revised PHIP. Financial Times reports that the company is likely to raise up to HK$1B...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

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