Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. </p><p>Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…</p>

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.</p><p>AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.</p>

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

<p><strong>Summary: These include: Short U.S. treasury bonds, short emerging markets (but long Russia equity index), long U.S. dollar and short Euro. </strong>Apart from the usual long U.S. infrastructure ETF/companies, earlier discussed, long pharma/biotech trades (XBI ETF rallied 20% last week), and long U.S. financials in a post-Trump era, we provide few other actionable ideas. </p><p><strong> </strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Short Treasury Bonds: Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF)</strong></p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/228/original/TLT.gif?1478994729" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16228"></figure><p><strong>Fundamentals:</strong> U.S. treasury yields are rocketing, leading to a…</p>

Summary: These include: Short U.S. treasury bonds, short emerging markets (but long Russia equity index), long U.S. dollar and short Euro. Apart from the usual long U.S. infrastructure ETF/companies, earlier discussed, long pharma/biotech trades (XBI ETF rallied 20% last week), and long U.S. financials in a post-Trump era, we provide few other actionable ideas.  Short Treasury Bonds: Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF)Fundamentals: U.S. treasury yields are rocketing, leading to a…

Five More Actionable Ideas in a Post-Trump World

United Kingdom

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC operates as a bank. The Bank services includes retail banking and payment services, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management operations solutions. Bank of Georgia Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, Belarus, and Georgia.

Secure Trust Bank PLC accepts deposits and offers retail banking services.  The Company offers automobile and retail point of sale financing, and personal unsecured lending.

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, UK Private banking, and Group Centre. The company provides private banking services, such as current accounts, deposit accounts, loans, overdrafts, and foreign exchange services; wealth planning services comprising estate and tax planning, pensions, and wealth preservation and generation; and discretionary investment management services, including asset management and developing tailored investment strategies. It also offers retail banking products and services, such as savings and current accounts; consumer finance products in motor finance, retail finance, and unsecured personal lending areas; and SME?s funding for asset finance, invoice finance, and real estate finance. In addition, the company offers commercial banking services comprising financing and cash transaction requirements of SMEs, as well as household cash management and insurance services. Further, the company offers leasing, debt collection, and property rental and management services. Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Metro Bank PLC provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers services such as current accounts, mortgages, safe deposit boxes, cash management, private banking, and debit and credit cards. Metro Bank conducts its business in the United Kingdom.

Paragon Group of Cos PLC provides lending services, including personal financing, vehicle financing, and an assortment of residential mortgage choices.  The Group's mortgage loans are secured on residential properties within the United Kingdom.  Paragon offers its full range of services on-line through interactive websites.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

Bank of Nova Scotia provides retail, commercial, international, corporate, investment and private banking services and products.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

What AI Means for Investors

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment...

CM Research

Five More Actionable Ideas in a Post-Trump World

Summary: These include: Short U.S. treasury bonds, short emerging markets (but long Russia equity index), long U.S. dollar and short Euro. Apart...

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

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