Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.</li>
<li>With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.</li>
<li>
Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…</li>
</ul>


All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.
With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.

Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…


BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

<ul><li>The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.</li><li>Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).</li><li>With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.</li></ul>

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening evening...===================================================================================Japan’s city banks are not the firms that first come to mind when you think of leading edge technology, but that may have to start changing as Japanese corporate activity picks up. Ever since rules on Japanese banks investing in fintech firms were lifted, Japan’s city banks have embraced new technologies like blockchain, while the…

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening evening...===================================================================================Japan’s city banks are not the firms that first come to mind when you think of leading edge technology, but that may have to start changing as Japanese corporate activity picks up. Ever since rules on Japanese banks investing in fintech firms were lifted, Japan’s city banks have embraced new technologies like blockchain, while the…

Japan - Can It Get Its Tech Mojo Back with Fintech?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21976" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN)</a> has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN) has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology shares could be the impetus without catalysts beyond the well-priced for iPhone8 replacement cycle; and* Without many engines of growth remaining for the Western brokers beyond “margin finance”, there are very few reasons to own the space.Over a three week period in June 2015, the Chinese A-share market collapsed by about 30% - having soared over 150%…

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology shares could be the impetus without catalysts beyond the well-priced for iPhone8 replacement cycle; and* Without many engines of growth remaining for the Western brokers beyond “margin finance”, there are very few reasons to own the space.Over a three week period in June 2015, the Chinese A-share market collapsed by about 30% - having soared over 150%…

United Kingdom

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC operates as a bank. The Bank services includes retail banking and payment services, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management operations solutions. Bank of Georgia Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, Belarus, and Georgia.

Secure Trust Bank PLC accepts deposits and offers retail banking services.  The Company offers automobile and retail point of sale financing, and personal unsecured lending.

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, UK Private banking, and Group Centre. The company provides private banking services, such as current accounts, deposit accounts, loans, overdrafts, and foreign exchange services; wealth planning services comprising estate and tax planning, pensions, and wealth preservation and generation; and discretionary investment management services, including asset management and developing tailored investment strategies. It also offers retail banking products and services, such as savings and current accounts; consumer finance products in motor finance, retail finance, and unsecured personal lending areas; and SME?s funding for asset finance, invoice finance, and real estate finance. In addition, the company offers commercial banking services comprising financing and cash transaction requirements of SMEs, as well as household cash management and insurance services. Further, the company offers leasing, debt collection, and property rental and management services. Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Metro Bank PLC provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers services such as current accounts, mortgages, safe deposit boxes, cash management, private banking, and debit and credit cards. Metro Bank conducts its business in the United Kingdom.

Paragon Group of Cos PLC provides lending services, including personal financing, vehicle financing, and an assortment of residential mortgage choices.  The Group's mortgage loans are secured on residential properties within the United Kingdom.  Paragon offers its full range of services on-line through interactive websites.

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

Bank of Nova Scotia provides retail, commercial, international, corporate, investment and private banking services and products.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into...

Phil Rush

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I...

Phil Rush

Japan - Can It Get Its Tech Mojo Back with Fintech?

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for...

Daniel Tabbush

Shanghai-Ed by Western Brokers

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology...

Thomas J. Monaco

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