Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.</li>
</ul>


Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.


SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SET conducted a market consultation in September/October and amended the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> index methodology earlier this month. These changes could see an extra 'targeted' deletion from the index.</li>
<li>The review period ends today and we see two high probability inclusions which means there will be at least two deletions. One of the deletions is a high probability name.</li>
<li>The changes should be announced mid-December and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 December.</li>
</ul>


SET conducted a market consultation in September/October and amended the SET50 INDEX index methodology earlier this month. These changes could see an extra 'targeted' deletion from the index.
The review period ends today and we see two high probability inclusions which means there will be at least two deletions. One of the deletions is a high probability name.
The changes should be announced mid-December and will be implemented at the close of trading on 30 December.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Revised Methodology & Potential Changes

<p>In this weeks recap, we look at:</p><ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the spread on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> deal and potential index flows</li>
<li>the listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and the potential Fast Entry into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances</li>
</ul><p>There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!</p><p>There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US)</a>. </p>

In this weeks recap, we look at:
the Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 
the spread on the Keppel Corp (KEP SP) / Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) deal and potential index flows
the listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and the potential Fast Entry into the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) 
the potential changes to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances
There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US). 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><p>The move to acquire the 768MW Temple I power plant in Texas is aligned with the BANPU Group’s growth transition to a “greener and smarter” portfolio and paves the way to entering the power business under a wholesale electricity market with an advanced trading system in the US. We preliminarily expect Temple I to generate immediate cash flow (starting in 2022E), implying upside risk of 8-10% to BANPU’s earnings and 6-7% to BPP’s earnings. We maintain a Hold rating on BANPU.</p></div></div></div></div>

The move to acquire the 768MW Temple I power plant in Texas is aligned with the BANPU Group’s growth transition to a “greener and smarter” portfolio and paves the way to entering the power business under a wholesale electricity market with an advanced trading system in the US. We preliminarily expect Temple I to generate immediate cash flow (starting in 2022E), implying upside risk of 8-10% to BANPU’s earnings and 6-7% to BPP’s earnings. We maintain a Hold rating on BANPU.

<p>BANPU’s 1H21 earnings showed stronger momentum YoY, with the coal business as the key growth catalyst, prompting us to maintain our full- year forecasts. Meanwhile, the company is transitioning to a “greener and smarter” portfolio, with the incremental contribution expected to ramp up over the next five years at the expense of an EPS dilution effect from the planned capital increase. We maintain a Hold rating.</p>

BANPU’s 1H21 earnings showed stronger momentum YoY, with the coal business as the key growth catalyst, prompting us to maintain our full- year forecasts. Meanwhile, the company is transitioning to a “greener and smarter” portfolio, with the incremental contribution expected to ramp up over the next five years at the expense of an EPS dilution effect from the planned capital increase. We maintain a Hold rating.

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

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Banpu Public (BANPU TB)

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SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Revised Methodology & Potential Changes

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Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering the index rebalance space in Asia as well as announcements that could result in index changes. We also look...

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Company Update: Banpu Plc. (BANPU)

The move to acquire the 768MW Temple I power plant in Texas is aligned with the BANPU Group’s growth transition to a “greener and smarter” portfolio

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Review: Banpu Plc.

BANPU’s 1H21 earnings showed stronger momentum YoY, with the coal business as the key growth catalyst, prompting us to maintain our full- year...

Krungthai XSpring

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