Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.<div class="content-highlight">We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. </div>An…

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. An…

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

<ul><li>There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.</li><li>The currency has become more acutely weak.</li><li>Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.</li><li>Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.</li></ul>

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.The currency has become more acutely weak.Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.

Indonesia

Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT provides general banking services. The Bank's head office is located in Jakarta with branch offices throughout Indonesia.

PT Bank Panin Indonesia Tbk provides commercial banking and foreign exchange services in Indonesia and overseas.

Bank Ina Perdana PT is headquartered in Indonesia. The Company's line of business includes the operation of national commercial banks.

PT Bank Permata Tbk provides commercial and foreign exchange banking services through a network of offices in Indonesia.  The Bank also performs custodianship and trusteeship services as well as manages pension funds.

Bank Maybank Indonesia Tbk PT provides commercial banking services including deposit taking, lending, treasury, and investment banking services. The Bank also provides trade finance facilities, foreign exchange transaction services, loan syndications for project financing, and investment services.

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk provides commercial banking services.

PT Bank Sinarmas Tbk is a full service commercial bank. The Company offers a wide range of banking services, including checking and savings accounts as well as phone banking, Internet banking and automatic teller machines.

PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk provides general commercial banking services.  The Bank has branch offices located throughout Indonesia.

PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk is a commercial bank. The bank offers a wide range of banking products and services.

PT Bank of India Indonesia Tbk provides general banking and foreign exchange transaction services. The Bank's offices are located in Jakarta and Surabaya.

Westamerica Bancorporation is the holding company for Westamerica Bank and Bank of Lake County.  The Banks provide a full range of services to individual and corporate customers in northern and central California.  The Company's other subsidiaries finance accounts receivable and inventory lines of credit and term business loans, as well as provides data processing services to the Company.

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited provides financial services including consumer, corporate and mortgage financing.  Additionally the Company provides securities underwriting and investment advisory services.  Thanachart Capital also provides insurance services through its subsidiaries.

Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, investments, loans, insurance, wealth management, phone banking, and business cards. Alliance Bank Malaysia serves customers in Singapore and Malaysia.

The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Limited provides banking services, including CD's, educational loans, housing loans and car loans.  The Bank also provides insurance services through a joint venture with MetLife India Insurance Company. The Group has about 475 branches throughout India.

S&T Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for S&T Bank and S&T Investment Company, Inc.  S&T Bank is a full service bank providing service to its customers through a network of offices located in Allegheny, Armstrong, Clarion, Indiana, Jefferson, Clearfield, and Westmoreland counties in Pennsylvania.

Suruga Bank Ltd. is a Shizuoka based regional bank mainly operating in the Kanto area (central eastern part of Japan) including Tokyo.  The Bank provides deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Suruga Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, letter of credit, and credit cards services.

The San-in Godo Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank mainly operating in Shimane and Tottori Prefectures.  The Bank offers banking services including deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities brokerage.  The San-in Godo Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, invests in venture capital, and develops software.

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation is a bank holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides general banking business and offers a range of financial services including traditional retail banking services, such as savings, time deposits, mortgage, consumer installment, and commercial loans.

Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Sandy Spring Bank.  The Bank conducts a full-service commercial banking business through a network of offices located in Montgomery, Howard, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, and Frederick counties in Maryland.  The Company also operates Sandy Spring Insurance Company and The Equipment Leasing Company.

Hope Bancorp Inc is the holding company for Bank of Hope, a commercial bank that serves individuals and small- to medium-sized businesses. The Bank accepts deposits, and originates a variety of loans, and offers equipment lease financing and postdated check discount and factoring. Hope Bancorp operates in California, New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Illinois.

PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk. is a financial institution that specializes in funding and lending. The Bank offers accounts in deposits & savings, pension loans, small to medium sized business loans, and other financial products.  Bank Tabungan offers services in bank clearance, payment, collection, transfer, and payroll services.

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

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Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesia Concerns in Focus

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia. The currency has become more acutely weak. Bad loans are rising for all the major banks...

Daniel Tabbush

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