ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia </li>
<li>The past week saw knockout results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and a resilient numbers from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> plus we saw <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB)</a> back in the limelight.</li>
<li>We also have multiple comments on the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> in Indonesia plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a> plus our usual comment on other developments in ASEAN</li>
</ul>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia 
The past week saw knockout results from Sea Ltd (SE US) and a resilient numbers from Grab plus we saw Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB) back in the limelight.
We also have multiple comments on the IPO of PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) in Indonesia plus Mitratel (MTEL IJ) plus our usual comment on other developments in ASEAN


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Knockout, Grab's Progress, and the Avian IPO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>9M21 review: Despite miss, strong earnings growth is on the horizon</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

9M21 review: Despite miss, strong earnings growth is on the horizonContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - 9M21 review: Despite miss, strong earnings growth is on the ho...

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> released 3Q2021 results this week, which presented a mixed bag due to the onset of a new wave of COVID-19 and subsequent Emergency PPKM measures, which slowed business activity at least in July and August, with some recovery in September.</p>
<p>Despite the more restrictive economic backdrop, the bank still managed to grow its loans with a focus on lower-risk sectors both in corporate and consumer lending. Its digital efforts continue to yield positive results, both for consumer and wholesale banking, and we see more to come in the coming months. </p>
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<p>The bank grew its loans QoQ bringing 9M2021 loan growth to +3.7% YoY and it grew its third-party funds by +3.4% QoQ in 3Q2021. The cost of funds in 3Q2021 was the lowest ever at 1.54%, down by -10bps QoQ. </p>
<p>The bank's PPOP (pre-provisioning operating profit) increased by +21% YoY for 9M2021, whilst its net profit was up by +79.3% YoY and +5.0% QoQ in 3Q2021, mainly due to an -18% decline in the bank's provisioning in 3Q2021. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> continued to focus on growing its loan portfolio, with a focus on low-risk areas such as top tier corporates but also lower risk consumer loans.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> continues to focus on its ongoing digital transformation, both digitalising its own internal platform as well as developing digital native products.</p>
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<p>One key change in the bank's strategy and the fourth leg to its digital strategy is its move toward setting up a stand along the digital bank.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> continues to capitalise on the Fintech boom through collaboration with e-commerce players including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traveloka-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32155:1" rel="noopener">Traveloka</a> and Shopee on BNPL</p>
<p>In a landmark deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> has issued Indonesia's first AT1 Perpetual Bond, meaning that a future rights issue will likely be more moderate.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ</a>) is often seen as the bank playing catch up with its peers but maybe this time is different and it may finally be ripe for a re-rating.</p>
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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) released 3Q2021 results this week, which presented a mixed bag due to the onset of a new wave of COVID-19 and subsequent Emergency PPKM measures, which slowed business activity at least in July and August, with some recovery in September.
Despite the more restrictive economic backdrop, the bank still managed to grow its loans with a focus on lower-risk sectors both in corporate and consumer lending. Its digital efforts continue to yield positive results, both for consumer and wholesale banking, and we see more to come in the coming months. 

The bank grew its loans QoQ bringing 9M2021 loan growth to +3.7% YoY and it grew its third-party funds by +3.4% QoQ in 3Q2021. The cost of funds in 3Q2021 was the lowest ever at 1.54%, down by -10bps QoQ. 
The bank's PPOP (pre-provisioning operating profit) increased by +21% YoY for 9M2021, whilst its net profit was up by +79.3% YoY and +5.0% QoQ in 3Q2021, mainly due to an -18% decline in the bank's provisioning in 3Q2021. 
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) continued to focus on growing its loan portfolio, with a focus on low-risk areas such as top tier corporates but also lower risk consumer loans.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) continues to focus on its ongoing digital transformation, both digitalising its own internal platform as well as developing digital native products.



One key change in the bank's strategy and the fourth leg to its digital strategy is its move toward setting up a stand along the digital bank.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) continues to capitalise on the Fintech boom through collaboration with e-commerce players including Traveloka and Shopee on BNPL
In a landmark deal, Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) has issued Indonesia's first AT1 Perpetual Bond, meaning that a future rights issue will likely be more moderate.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) is often seen as the bank playing catch up with its peers but maybe this time is different and it may finally be ripe for a re-rating.



Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Ripe for A Re-Rating?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><em><strong>*Solid Result, But Challenges Ahead: </strong></em>Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 3Q21 results of IDR 8.7 tn, improving IDR 1.3 tn (17.9%) on a linked quarter basis. BCA’s positive operating performance was highlighted by a loss provision cut of 66.5%, a slightly reduced tax rate, and a modest decline in costs; and</p><p><em><strong>*Credit Challenges </strong></em><em><strong>Abating</strong></em><em><strong>: </strong></em>By our calculation, we find that 3Q21 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 942 bn for an annualized rate of increase of 27.2%, and comparing very favorably to the 92.4% rate in 2Q21. Despite the significant deceleration in net new NPL formation, we calculate that loss reserves are likely right where they need to be.</p>

*Solid Result, But Challenges Ahead: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 3Q21 results of IDR 8.7 tn, improving IDR 1.3 tn (17.9%) on a linked quarter basis. BCA’s positive operating performance was highlighted by a loss provision cut of 66.5%, a slightly reduced tax rate, and a modest decline in costs; and*Credit Challenges Abating: By our calculation, we find that 3Q21 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 942 bn for an annualized rate of increase of 27.2%, and comparing very favorably to the 92.4% rate in 2Q21. Despite the significant deceleration in net new NPL formation, we calculate that loss reserves are likely right where they need to be.

Bank Central Asia – Substantial Credit Delta Improvement

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> results call highlighted that we have started to see a pick up in lending activity in 3Q2021, with great utilisation of working capital loans, growing demand for corporate loans, and a strong recovery in mortgage lending.  The bank is also seeing rapid growth in transactional banking, which is feeding into strong CASA growth, and fee income. The bank is also a stand-out on its digital offering and exposure to the burgeoning digital economy. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> just released its 9M2021 results registering a strong performance with net profit increasing by +15.8% YoY.</p>
<p>The key message from management was that loan growth is picking up, funding is rock solid, and there is continuing momentum behind the bank's transactional banking.</p>
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<p>In terms of key ratios, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> saw its net interest margin (NIM) decrease slightly to 5.0% in 3Q2021, down by -0.2% QoQ, whilst the banks cost of capital fell dramatically in 3Q2021 to 0.8% versus 2.6% in 2Q2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is flush with capital and with liquidity, with a CAR ratio of 26.2% and a loans to deposits ratio (LDR) of 62.0% for 9M2021.</p>
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<p>A significant highlight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> was the pick up in loans growth for 3Q2021 and consequently 9M2021 driven by corporate and consumer loans.</p>
<p>Another key stand out for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> has been the growth in its transactions, driven to a large extent by the growth in digital transactions.</p>
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<p>The company continues to expand its stand-alone digital initiative under BCA Digital and its blu app, adding new features targeting millennial customers specifically. </p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> just completed its stock split which</span><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> will help to improve liquidity in the bank given that it will make the share more affordable to retail investors.</span></section>


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) results call highlighted that we have started to see a pick up in lending activity in 3Q2021, with great utilisation of working capital loans, growing demand for corporate loans, and a strong recovery in mortgage lending.  The bank is also seeing rapid growth in transactional banking, which is feeding into strong CASA growth, and fee income. The bank is also a stand-out on its digital offering and exposure to the burgeoning digital economy. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) just released its 9M2021 results registering a strong performance with net profit increasing by +15.8% YoY.
The key message from management was that loan growth is picking up, funding is rock solid, and there is continuing momentum behind the bank's transactional banking.



In terms of key ratios, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) saw its net interest margin (NIM) decrease slightly to 5.0% in 3Q2021, down by -0.2% QoQ, whilst the banks cost of capital fell dramatically in 3Q2021 to 0.8% versus 2.6% in 2Q2021.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is flush with capital and with liquidity, with a CAR ratio of 26.2% and a loans to deposits ratio (LDR) of 62.0% for 9M2021.



A significant highlight for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) was the pick up in loans growth for 3Q2021 and consequently 9M2021 driven by corporate and consumer loans.
Another key stand out for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) has been the growth in its transactions, driven to a large extent by the growth in digital transactions.





The company continues to expand its stand-alone digital initiative under BCA Digital and its blu app, adding new features targeting millennial customers specifically. 





Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) just completed its stock split which will help to improve liquidity in the bank given that it will make the share more affordable to retail investors.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)- Inflexion Point

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Knockout, Grab's Progress, and the Avian IPO

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh