Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.</li>
<li>60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>GoTo was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.
GoTo was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this 3Q22 Indonesian banks screener, we rate Bank Negara as our key value pick with its very attractive valuations including PEG ratio and its improving cost of risk trends</li>
<li>We continue to also favour Bank Mandiri, but, in the wake of the share price re-rating, it is our secondary value pick to Negara</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat has delivered improved returns in 3Q22, and shows signs of “turn around” potential; we look for management to improve credit quality and especially the Special Mention Loans Ratio</li>
</ul>


In this 3Q22 Indonesian banks screener, we rate Bank Negara as our key value pick with its very attractive valuations including PEG ratio and its improving cost of risk trends
We continue to also favour Bank Mandiri, but, in the wake of the share price re-rating, it is our secondary value pick to Negara
Bank Rakyat has delivered improved returns in 3Q22, and shows signs of “turn around” potential; we look for management to improve credit quality and especially the Special Mention Loans Ratio


Indonesian Banks 3Q22 Screener; Negara Stands Out as the Value Pick

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> released a robust set of 9M2022 results driven by loan growth across all segments together with low-cost CASA funding and falling provisioning.</li>
<li>The bank demonstrated its leadership in transactional banking with total transactions growing +48% YoY, with 89% in volume terms and 59% in value terms through mobile and internet banking. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> continues to be a core holding and trades at a premium to its peers for good reason and it has already demonstrated its digital prowess.</li>
</ul>



Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) released a robust set of 9M2022 results driven by loan growth across all segments together with low-cost CASA funding and falling provisioning.
The bank demonstrated its leadership in transactional banking with total transactions growing +48% YoY, with 89% in volume terms and 59% in value terms through mobile and internet banking. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to be a core holding and trades at a premium to its peers for good reason and it has already demonstrated its digital prowess.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Demonstrating Digital Prowess

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> while buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>The passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Emtek (EMTK IJ) while buying GoTo (GOTO IJ) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ). 
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.
The passive buying on GoTo (GOTO IJ) on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.


IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO

In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Indonesian Banks 3Q22 Screener; Negara Stands Out as the Value Pick

Bank Negara is our key value pick with its very attractive valuations including PEG ratio, we continue to favour Bank Mandiri, but it is our...

Victor Galliano

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Demonstrating Digital Prowess

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to be a core holding and trades at a premium to its peers for good reason and it has already demonstrated its...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO

In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Indonesian Banks 3Q22 Screener; Negara Stands Out as the Value Pick

Bank Negara is our key value pick with its very attractive valuations including PEG ratio, we continue to favour Bank Mandiri, but it is our...

Victor Galliano

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Demonstrating Digital Prowess

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to be a core holding and trades at a premium to its peers for good reason and it has already demonstrated its...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday