Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>* BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) [BDO] reported 4Q21net income of PHP 11.0 bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (10.0%) linked quarter increase, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws; </li>
<li>The level of net new NPLs declined PHP 319 mn or 1.7% on an annualized basis which is a wonderful turn of events for BDO; and</li>
<li>By our calculation, BDO’s reserves appear fine where they are provided credit quality doesn’t reverse course -suggesting earnings strength on the horizon.</li>
</ul>


* BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) [BDO] reported 4Q21net income of PHP 11.0 bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (10.0%) linked quarter increase, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws; 
The level of net new NPLs declined PHP 319 mn or 1.7% on an annualized basis which is a wonderful turn of events for BDO; and
By our calculation, BDO’s reserves appear fine where they are provided credit quality doesn’t reverse course -suggesting earnings strength on the horizon.


<ul>
<li>
<em><strong>Another Fraud In The Philippines:</strong></em> Nearly 700 BDO Unibank customers have reported unauthorized account transactions of between PHP 25,000-PHP 50,000 with accounts at UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM);</li>
<li>
<em><strong>Small Risk:</strong></em>Assuming that the affected customers are capped at 700, losses from this incident would amount to USD 700,000 – well under 1% of consensus forecasts for 2022; and</li>
<li>
<em><strong>Weak Fundamentals:</strong></em> Net new NPLs increased an alarming PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% annualized.  BDO’s reserves are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of results.</li>
</ul>



Another Fraud In The Philippines: Nearly 700 BDO Unibank customers have reported unauthorized account transactions of between PHP 25,000-PHP 50,000 with accounts at UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM);

Small Risk:Assuming that the affected customers are capped at 700, losses from this incident would amount to USD 700,000 – well under 1% of consensus forecasts for 2022; and

Weak Fundamentals: Net new NPLs increased an alarming PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% annualized.  BDO’s reserves are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of results.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Metropolitan Bank & Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>On the <a href="https://www.phcc.gov.ph/press-releases/banks-mca-moa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5 November</a>, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP - the central bank of the Philippines), the Securities and Exchange Commission, Philippine Competition Commission (PCC), Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp, and the Cooperative Development Authority signed a multi-agency agreement to streamline the merger, consolidation, and acquisition (MCA) process to encourage consolidation in the banking sector.</p>
<p>BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said the agreement "<em>aims to streamline processes, reduce processing time, and facilitate prompt action of applications for mergers, consolidations, and acquisitions</em>". PCC's Arsenio Balisacan added: "<em>We acknowledge that mergers, consolidations, and acquisitions can catalyse innovation in any industry, including banking, because of combined resources and expertise". </em></p>
<p>The agreement, in effect, harmonizes the paperwork across the various regulators, by reducing the number of documentary requirements to 30 from 58, which in turn lowers the total processing time to an expected 55 business days from an average of 160 business days currently.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.phcc.gov.ph/press-releases/banks-mca-moa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PCC</a>, the "<em>Implementing Guidelines on the procedures for MCA applications will subsequently be issued via a Joint Circular by the partner-agencies</em>".</p>
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<div id="gpt-ad-Instream_Video">For years, the various regulators have aimed to consolidate the Philippines' highly fragmented banking sector comprising mostly small rural lenders. Such inefficiencies have led to nine problematic banks being shut this year, including BSP's recent order to close United People’s Rural Bank Inc.</div>
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<div>The accord was also promulgated after the BSP stopped accepting digital banking license applications from 1 September 2021, with the number of digital lenders expected to be capped at seven for the next three years.</div>
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<div>The question is: who stands to benefit from this MCA streamlining?</div>
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<div><em>For more on M&amp;A in the Philippines, please see the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-philippines-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31122" rel="noopener">Quiddity Philippines M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>. </em></div>
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On the 5 November, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP - the central bank of the Philippines), the Securities and Exchange Commission, Philippine Competition Commission (PCC), Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp, and the Cooperative Development Authority signed a multi-agency agreement to streamline the merger, consolidation, and acquisition (MCA) process to encourage consolidation in the banking sector.
BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said the agreement "aims to streamline processes, reduce processing time, and facilitate prompt action of applications for mergers, consolidations, and acquisitions". PCC's Arsenio Balisacan added: "We acknowledge that mergers, consolidations, and acquisitions can catalyse innovation in any industry, including banking, because of combined resources and expertise". 
The agreement, in effect, harmonizes the paperwork across the various regulators, by reducing the number of documentary requirements to 30 from 58, which in turn lowers the total processing time to an expected 55 business days from an average of 160 business days currently.
According to the PCC, the "Implementing Guidelines on the procedures for MCA applications will subsequently be issued via a Joint Circular by the partner-agencies".

For years, the various regulators have aimed to consolidate the Philippines' highly fragmented banking sector comprising mostly small rural lenders. Such inefficiencies have led to nine problematic banks being shut this year, including BSP's recent order to close United People’s Rural Bank Inc.

The accord was also promulgated after the BSP stopped accepting digital banking license applications from 1 September 2021, with the number of digital lenders expected to be capped at seven for the next three years.


The question is: who stands to benefit from this MCA streamlining?




For more on M&amp;A in the Philippines, please see the Quiddity Philippines M&amp;A Guide 2019. 





Bank of the Philippine Islands / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*</em></strong><strong><em>Credit Leverage On Its Way: </em></strong>Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI.PM) [BPI] reported 3Q21 results of PHP 5.7 bn, declining PHP 1.1 bn (16.6%) linked quarter. While results were down linked quarter, what impressed us most was how well controlled credit metrics appear to be; and</p><p><strong><em>*Significant Credit Improvement: </em></strong>Our net new NPL figure of PHP 152 mn or 1.5% annualized (65.4% at 4Q20) intimate that management may actually be on to something. Given where BPI and the Philippines are with credit, it would not surprise us in the least if BPI reverses loss reserves.</p>

*Credit Leverage On Its Way: Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI.PM) [BPI] reported 3Q21 results of PHP 5.7 bn, declining PHP 1.1 bn (16.6%) linked quarter. While results were down linked quarter, what impressed us most was how well controlled credit metrics appear to be; and*Significant Credit Improvement: Our net new NPL figure of PHP 152 mn or 1.5% annualized (65.4% at 4Q20) intimate that management may actually be on to something. Given where BPI and the Philippines are with credit, it would not surprise us in the least if BPI reverses loss reserves.

Bank Of Philippine Islands – Asia’s Top Performer

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> reported a strong set of 1H2021 numbers with net income up by +63.1% YoY on the back of a +30.9% increase in operating revenues.</p>
<p>The bottom-line performance was driven by the increase in operating revenues together with positive investment income. </p>
<p>The company saw particularly strong growth in listing fees due to a number of large size IPOs, whilst transaction fees and SCCP clearing fees increased due to higher market volumes, driven by particularly strong retail activity.</p>
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<p>The real growth driver for revenues and profits in 1H2021 came from a significant increase in capital raisings.</p>
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<p>Even after the flush of offerings in 1H2021, the listing pipeline is robust for 2H2021 and going into 2022, with a number of already approved issues plus upcoming planned listings as well as a number of planned REITs in the pipeline, which have already been featured in the news.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> has also laid out a number of key initiatives set to launch this year which will provide a potential boost to activity on the exchange including new rules on short selling.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> will launch a new marketing campaign to encourage more companies to list and especially SMEs. </p>
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<p>This latest set of results underline the positive story with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> which continues to look promising with a strong IPO and placement pipeline for 2H2021 and going into 2022. </p>
<p>If we factor in the company's cash per share into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> valuation then the company is trading on an ex-cash FY21E PER of 16.0x and FY22E PER of 14.5x making it look significantly more attractive versus its peers together with stronger growth prospects. </p>
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The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported a strong set of 1H2021 numbers with net income up by +63.1% YoY on the back of a +30.9% increase in operating revenues.
The bottom-line performance was driven by the increase in operating revenues together with positive investment income. 
The company saw particularly strong growth in listing fees due to a number of large size IPOs, whilst transaction fees and SCCP clearing fees increased due to higher market volumes, driven by particularly strong retail activity.





The real growth driver for revenues and profits in 1H2021 came from a significant increase in capital raisings.

Even after the flush of offerings in 1H2021, the listing pipeline is robust for 2H2021 and going into 2022, with a number of already approved issues plus upcoming planned listings as well as a number of planned REITs in the pipeline, which have already been featured in the news.



The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) has also laid out a number of key initiatives set to launch this year which will provide a potential boost to activity on the exchange including new rules on short selling.
Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) will launch a new marketing campaign to encourage more companies to list and especially SMEs. 





This latest set of results underline the positive story with Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) which continues to look promising with a strong IPO and placement pipeline for 2H2021 and going into 2022. 
If we factor in the company's cash per share into the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) valuation then the company is trading on an ex-cash FY21E PER of 16.0x and FY22E PER of 14.5x making it look significantly more attractive versus its peers together with stronger growth prospects. 


Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Thriving on Retailers and IPOs

Philippines

Bank of the Philippine Islands, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services. The Company's products includes ATM, debit card system, credit card, electronic cash card, internet platform and other services.

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Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI PM)

BDO Unibank – Ready to Run

BDO: BDO reported a QOQ 4Q21net income increase of 10.0%, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws. Net new NPLs were negative, and reserves...

Thomas J. Monaco

BDO Unibank – Small Hit, Big Problem

BDO UNIBANK: Nearly 700 BDO customers have reported unauthorized account transactions. Losses are small, but reputational risk is high. Add this...

Thomas J. Monaco

Philippine Banks: Streamlining M&A

MBT PM's given its conservative approach during Covid has improved its overall asset quality, plus it has the highest NPL coverage among the top...

David Blennerhassett

Bank Of Philippine Islands – Asia’s Top Performer

BANK OF PHILIPPINE ISLANDS: BPI reported QOQ 3Q21 results declined 16.6%. What impressed us most was how well controlled credit metrics are. It...

Thomas J. Monaco

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Thriving on Retailers and IPOs

The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) continues to look undervalued relative to other listed regional exchanges with a strong IPO and placement...

Angus Mackintosh

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