Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Highlights:&nbsp;Domestic risks rising in the Philippines<ul><li>The strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets, as seen by the sharp contractions in both Europe and Asia's remittances growth rates. Given that remittances are pivotal to consumption in the Philippines, this deceleration could mean softer consumer spending.</li><li>President Aquino&rsquo;s loss of popularity, which could make him a lameduck president, could also impact the impending 2016 elections as candidates aligned to Aquino and his party could be undermined by such negative sentiments.</li><li>However, in the medium and longer term, we still see the Philippines outperforming its peers, due to a confluence of positives including favourable demographics, stable macroeconomic framework and stronger corporate governance in the country.</li></ul>Fed policy: markets may well be disappointed<ul><li>While the latest statements from the Federal Reserve Bank of the US signalled a more cautious approach to monetary normalisation than financial markets feared, we believe that the underlying US economy is robust and likely to accelerate in coming quarters to the point where monetary tightening will take place at a faster pace than markets now expect.</li></ul>

Highlights:&nbsp;Domestic risks rising in the PhilippinesThe strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets, as seen by the sharp contractions in both Europe and Asia's remittances growth rates. Given that remittances are pivotal to consumption in the Philippines, this deceleration could mean softer consumer spending.President Aquino&rsquo;s loss of popularity, which could make him a lameduck president, could also impact the impending 2016 elections as candidates aligned to Aquino and his party could be undermined by such negative sentiments.However, in the medium and longer term, we still see the Philippines outperforming its peers, due to a confluence of positives including favourable demographics, stable macroeconomic framework and stronger corporate governance in the country.Fed policy: markets may well be disappointedWhile the latest statements from the Federal Reserve Bank of the US signalled a more cautious approach to monetary normalisation than financial markets feared, we believe that the underlying US economy is robust and likely to accelerate in coming quarters to the point where monetary tightening will take place at a faster pace than markets now expect.

Domestic risks rising in the Philippines. Is the Fed really deferring monetary normalization? 

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank of the Philippine Islands / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sometimes it is better to stick to the larger banks in markets that are especially illiquid, like Philippines.</li><li>The largest banks are BDO Unibank and Bank of Philippine Islands, which are often considered the same risk; they aren&rsquo;t.</li><li>Where BPI has a higher market value relative to its assets compared with BDO, we are not sure this is justified.</li></ul>

Sometimes it is better to stick to the larger banks in markets that are especially illiquid, like Philippines.The largest banks are BDO Unibank and Bank of Philippine Islands, which are often considered the same risk; they aren&rsquo;t.Where BPI has a higher market value relative to its assets compared with BDO, we are not sure this is justified.

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. &nbsp;Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than peers in Philippines. This will not last as credit costs narrow, costs come in, and fee income improves.&nbsp;

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. &nbsp;Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than peers in Philippines. This will not last as credit costs narrow, costs come in, and fee income improves.&nbsp;

PNB is over looked by most, but better capitalized, and with turnaround features

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Philippines

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company offers commercial and investment banking services. The Bank's business activities include borrowing and lending, trade finance, remittances, treasury, investment banking and savings.

China Banking Corporation is a commercial bank. The Bank provides products and services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, treasury products, trust products, corporate finance and other investment banking services.

Philtrust Bank provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, money market placements, business loans, transfer of funds and collections, remittances, securities investments, and safety deposit boxes. It also provides commercial letters of credit, collections and remittances, foreign exchange services, traveler�s checks, and foreign currency deposit unit transactions. In addition, the company offers trust services, such as trust placement, investment management, estate administration/trustee of bond issues, savings and pension plan administration, and insurance trust services, as well as acts as escrow agent, and stock registrar and transfer agent. It operates a network of approximately 57 branches and 57 automated teller machines. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Manila, the Philippines.

UnionBank of the Philippines, together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. It operates through Consumer Banking, Corporate and Commercial Banking, and Treasury segments. The company offers various personal banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, and time deposits; auto loans; debit and credit cards; trust and investment products; remittance products and services; and mobile banking services, as well as foreclosed properties and vehicles. It also provides corporate and small and medium scale enterprise products and services that consist of cash management services; various small business products and services; and treasury products. In addition, the company offers corporate and commercial banking loans; salary and mortgage loans; consumer finance products; pre-need insurance products and services; funds transfer facilities; retail and trust banking products and services; and capital markets products, as well as handles transactions in the financial markets covering foreign exchange and fixed income trading, and investments and derivatives products. Further, it provides insurance, securities, and foreign currency brokerage services; data processing services; venture capital products; financial products marketing services; and real estate administration services, as well as acts as a thrift banker. The company serves retail, middle market, corporate, and institutional customers, as well as small and medium enterprises and government institutions. As of December 31, 2014, it had 253 branches; and 243 on-site and 39 off-site automated teller machines. The company was formerly known as Union Savings and Mortgage Bank and changed its name to UnionBank of the Philippines in January 1982. UnionBank of the Philippines was founded in 1968 and is based in Pasig City, the Philippines.

Security Bank Corporation offers a wide variety of financial products and services. The Bank's services include peso, dollar and third currency deposits, domestic and international fund transfers, deposit pick-up and payroll services, and ancillary services.  Security Bank also provides working capital financing, term arrangements, loan syndication services.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation provides banking and financial products and services in the Philippines and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury, and Others segments. The company�s deposit products include checking and savings accounts, time deposits, foreign currency deposits, and cash cards. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial and consumer loans; and wholesale lending, rediscounting, and guaranty facilities. The company also provides remittance, payment and settlement, treasury, trust, overdraft facilities, money market, and trading services. In addition, it offers corporate cash management services, such as collection and receivables services; disbursements; government payment services; and third party services comprising collection and receivables services, and payment management services. Further, the company provides investment banking services, such as the underwriting of debt and equity securities for distribution through public offering or private placement; syndicated loans, joint ventures, and project finance; financial advisory and consultancy services; and mergers and acquisitions services. Additionally, it offers ancillary services, including day and night depository, deposit pick-up and delivery, foreign currency conversions, foreign trade information, economic and investment research, wealth management, and safety deposit boxes; automated teller machines; bills payment machines; and mobile, Internet, phone banking, and e-Shop services. As of December 31, 2014, the company operated a network of 449 business centers, including 35 extension offices; and 1,202 ATMs. The company was formerly known as Rizal Development Bank and changed its name to Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation in January 1963. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Makati City, the Philippines. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Yuchengco Group of Companies.

Philippine National Bank, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial bank services. Its products include deposit-taking, lending, bill discounting, foreign exchange dealing, investment banking, and fund transfer. The Company also offers merchant banking, remittance servicing, non-life insurance, leasing, stock brokerage, foreign exchange trading, and related services.

Asia United Bank Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and other financial products and services to consumers, small medium enterprises, and large corporations in the Philippines. The company operates through Commercial, Consumer, Treasury, Branch Banking, and Others segments. It provides commercial banking services, such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, domestic and foreign fund transfers, treasury, foreign exchange, and trust services. Its deposit products include savings, current, time, and other currency deposit accounts; and loan portfolio comprises auto, home, salary, and commercial loans, as well as real estate and pension loans. The company also provides cash management services; investment products, including treasury and trust products; and other services consisting of card, remittance, property sale, and leasing services. As of June 30, 2016, the company operated 232 branches. Asia United Bank Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Pasig, the Philippines.

East West Banking Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a commercial bank providing a range of financial services to consumer and corporate clients in the Philippines. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Consumer Banking, and Treasury and Trust segments. The company offers personal banking services, such as checking and savings accounts, time deposit, bills payment, check-writing, and prepaid and gift cards; credit cards; auto, home, pre owned properties and cars, personal, and business loans; Internet banking; personal investment services, including money market and fixed-income unit investment trust funds, and fixed-income investment trust funds; and suite of corporate services comprising payroll, disbursement, collection, and others services. It also provides trade finance; treasury products, such as fixed income securities and foreign exchange products; and fund and investment management, custodianship, administration and collateral agency services, and stock and transfer agency services. As of As of December 31, 2014, it served its customers through a network of 358 branches and 533 ATMs. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Taguig City, the Philippines.

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, guarantees, and trade finance for customers, corporate, and financial institutions. Bank for Investment also offers foreign exchange, money market, derivatives, and debt market services.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

First Horizon National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of financial services. The Company offers a variety of commercial banking services and also conducts mortgage banking, capital markets, and transaction processing.

Bank of the Philippine Islands, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services. The Company's products includes ATM, debit card system, credit card, electronic cash card, internet platform and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI PM)

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

Domestic risks rising in the Philippines. Is the Fed really deferring monetary normalization?

Highlights: Domestic risks rising in the Philippines The strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets,...

Manu Bhaskaran

BDO, BPI are not homogenous

Sometimes it is better to stick to the larger banks in markets that are especially illiquid, like Philippines. The largest banks are BDO Unibank...

Daniel Tabbush

PNB is over looked by most, but better capitalized, and with turnaround features

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than...

Daniel Tabbush

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)