China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing.  Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the spot price and 3M and 1YR options prices have narrowed significantly over the past year.  This implies, if taken at face value, that traders are narrowing their volatility expectations for the RMB.As a simple point of comparison, on June 8, 2015, the market had an implied 3MO and 1 year forward rate of 6.23 and 6.34 based on a spot rate of 6.2056 RMB…

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to SouFun-CREIS Index, with strong new home sales volumes at +39% year-on-year on 12-month rolling basis for April. The city enjoys strong corporate fundamentals with many leading firms in technology and telecom sectors based there, and historically limited supply of land and new homes relative to population growth.Yet latest weekly China new home sales GFA…

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

China

Bank of Ningbo Company Ltd is a full service commercial bank. The Bank provides personal and small business loans, trade financing, and retail banking services as well as personal savings and checking accounts. Bank of Ningbo is located in China.

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Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A (002142 CH)

A Strange Thing Happened on the Way to the CNY/CNH Option

A strange thing has happened to the value of CNY/CNH options and NDF pricing. Despite the increased concern over the RMB, the spread between the...

Christopher Balding

China Property - Likely Turning Point for Shenzhen?

In the recent cycle, Shenzhen has been outperforming all other cities in China on house price growth at +59% year-on-year in May according to...

Robert Ciemniak

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks. The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY...

Christopher Balding

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In that period,...

Daniel Tabbush

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Market Cap (USDm)

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