Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. </li>
<li>Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.</li>
<li>We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.</li>
</ul>


There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. 
Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.
We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.


US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

<ul>
<li>US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. </li>
<li>With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.</li>
<li>Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. </li>
</ul>


US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. 
With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.
Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. 


US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Of New York Mellon / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This iThis is our first report on a global custodian and asset management behemoth, Bank of New York Mellon Corp.</li><li>This After a surge in deposit balances following recent market fluctuations, BNY Mellon finished the quarter slightly higher than its starting point.</li><li>The company's broader liquidity platform, managing over $1.3 trillion of cash and short-term investments, witnessed growth in most channels.</li></ul>

This iThis is our first report on a global custodian and asset management behemoth, Bank of New York Mellon Corp.This After a surge in deposit balances following recent market fluctuations, BNY Mellon finished the quarter slightly higher than its starting point.The company's broader liquidity platform, managing over $1.3 trillion of cash and short-term investments, witnessed growth in most channels.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

United States

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon) is a global financial services company. The Company provides asset and wealth management, asset servicing, issuer, clearing, and treasury services for institutions, corporations, and high net worth individuals.

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Bank Of New York Mellon (BK US)

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

Weekly balance sheet data for large US banks shows liabilities shift toward higher cost funding continues, with loan growth remaining week, losing...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank of New York Mellon Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

This iThis is our first report on a global custodian and asset management behemoth, Bank of New York Mellon Corp. This After a surge in deposit...

Baptista Research

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. One of those risk-on signals is that the S&P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we...

Vermilion Research

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