Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In early February 2022, Silchester International Investors (according to its website) sent letters to four low-ROE-earning Japanese regional banks proposing a new dividend policy.</li>
<li>The management and boards of each bank rejected the policy proposal though two of the four had upped their proposed dividend or changed policy prior, and two upped it afterwards.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> is the biggie, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga Bank (8366 JP)</a> is another one with significant equity holdings. </li>
</ul>


In early February 2022, Silchester International Investors (according to its website) sent letters to four low-ROE-earning Japanese regional banks proposing a new dividend policy.
The management and boards of each bank rejected the policy proposal though two of the four had upped their proposed dividend or changed policy prior, and two upped it afterwards.
While Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) is the biggie, Shiga Bank (8366 JP) is another one with significant equity holdings. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester Goes After Shiga Bank

<ul>
<li>Silchester International Investors has owned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> for 16 years and is now the largest shareholder in the bank.</li>
<li>They have been dissatisfied, become vocal behind the scenes with their dissatisfaction, and BoK management disagrees so they will go to the mattresses. Gently. </li>
<li>This could get some investors excited, but it is unlikely to be a successful activist effort.</li>
</ul>


Silchester International Investors has owned Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) for 16 years and is now the largest shareholder in the bank.
They have been dissatisfied, become vocal behind the scenes with their dissatisfaction, and BoK management disagrees so they will go to the mattresses. Gently. 
This could get some investors excited, but it is unlikely to be a successful activist effort.


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester Goes After Bank of Kyoto

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. </li>
<li>SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.</li>
<li>8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. 
SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.
8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.


2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Japan

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

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Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Silchester Goes After Shiga Bank

Silchester Int'l Investors has written letters to four regional banks where it holds large stakes. The goal appears to be to urge public debate of...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Silchester Goes After Bank of Kyoto

Bank of Kyoto is a perennial disappointment to stewards of capital everywhere. Silchester has decided to get more aggressive and will challenge...

Travis Lundy

2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

Shinsei is buying back stock and the EGM to install SBI's management is Tuesday 8 February. Watch for more delisting talk after. There is buyback...

Travis Lundy

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

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