China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for China to deleverage and how debt cannot continue to increase.  Most have called this a shift in economic policy signaling Chinese intent to get the problem under control.I think we need to be much more cautious about interpreting this as any type of fundamental shift in policy.  Let me give you a number of reasons why.  First, in China an…

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for China to deleverage and how debt cannot continue to increase.  Most have called this a shift in economic policy signaling Chinese intent to get the problem under control.I think we need to be much more cautious about interpreting this as any type of fundamental shift in policy.  Let me give you a number of reasons why.  First, in China an…

The Authoritative Person and the Path of Chinese Growth

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.<ol><li>While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…</li></ol>

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods flows in light of the strengthening RMB.  While the trade surplus, FX reserves, and outflows should be closely linked given the unique factors of Chinese data, we need to explore them carefully.Let us begin with trade data.  Chinese data shows strong seasonality with March and April being the months with the largest level of month over month changes…

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods flows in light of the strengthening RMB.  While the trade surplus, FX reserves, and outflows should be closely linked given the unique factors of Chinese data, we need to explore them carefully.Let us begin with trade data.  Chinese data shows strong seasonality with March and April being the months with the largest level of month over month changes…

China

Bank of Jinzhou Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, remittance, wealth management, investment, and other services. Bank of Jinzhou provides services for enterprises and individuals.

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Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)

Changing Composition of RMB Outflows

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows...

Christopher Balding

China: Contingent Liabilities

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a...

Daniel Tabbush

The Authoritative Person and the Path of Chinese Growth

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for...

Christopher Balding

April Trade Data and FX Reserve

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured. April exports were...

Christopher Balding

Trade and FX Reserve Pre-Release Note

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods...

Christopher Balding

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)