Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our most recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-and-ping-an-sliding-toward-our-bear-objectives" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19724">Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives</a> outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward tactical support worthy of an upside bounce attempt with pivot levels that will either reject this bounce or confirm a low and break higher, acting as a lead bias for HK. We also take a deeper look into CCB, ICBC and Bank of China key support zones.This chart was published in our macro product over the weekend and outlined buy levels to try the long side…

Our most recent insight Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward tactical support worthy of an upside bounce attempt with pivot levels that will either reject this bounce or confirm a low and break higher, acting as a lead bias for HK. We also take a deeper look into CCB, ICBC and Bank of China key support zones.This chart was published in our macro product over the weekend and outlined buy levels to try the long side…

Tencent and Ping An Tactical Long, Pivots and H Bank Supports

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost deposit base; and are considered the cornerstone of the country’s banking system. Growth in funding costs in the latest year at these four banks is pedestrian at +6% YoY. They operate in a different realm to city and regional banks. Average funding costs rose 29% last year for China’s 23 other banks. Even this belies the 40-72% growth in funding for…

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost deposit base; and are considered the cornerstone of the country’s banking system. Growth in funding costs in the latest year at these four banks is pedestrian at +6% YoY. They operate in a different realm to city and regional banks. Average funding costs rose 29% last year for China’s 23 other banks. Even this belies the 40-72% growth in funding for…

China Banks – Radical Divergence in Funding Cost Growth

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Agricultural Bank Of China / Equity Bottom-Up

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

Lowering required provisions for China’s banks is not a panacea for credit growth. It is more likely that credit risks remain too high for most banks, when considering corporate financial metrics, such as debt/ebitda. This also well explains flatlining credit growth in non-financial institution lending for some time. For sure all listed China banks are above the lower band being discussed for loan loss reserves (LLR)-to-loans and LLR/NPLs. One unintended consequence is that those banks with the…

Lowering required provisions for China’s banks is not a panacea for credit growth. It is more likely that credit risks remain too high for most banks, when considering corporate financial metrics, such as debt/ebitda. This also well explains flatlining credit growth in non-financial institution lending for some time. For sure all listed China banks are above the lower band being discussed for loan loss reserves (LLR)-to-loans and LLR/NPLs. One unintended consequence is that those banks with the…

China – Provision Forbearance Not a Panacea

China

Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to individual and corporation customers worldwide.  The bank's services include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses.

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Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts...

Stewart Paterson

Tencent and Ping An Tactical Long, Pivots and H Bank Supports

Our most recent insight Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward...

Thomas Schroeder

China Banks – Radical Divergence in Funding Cost Growth

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost...

Daniel Tabbush

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising...

Thomas J. Monaco

China – Provision Forbearance Not a Panacea

Lowering required provisions for China’s banks is not a panacea for credit growth. It is more likely that credit risks remain too high for most...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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