Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. </li>
<li>The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. </li>
</ul>


Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. 
The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. 
Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. 


Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were up small on the week. HK stock indices were down. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$17.1bn in the third post-holiday week. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.</li>
</ul>


A shares were up small on the week. HK stock indices were down. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$17.1bn in the third post-holiday week. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Mar 2024); Big Net Buys of SOEs, Finally Tencent a Net Buy

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.</li>
<li>Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.
Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd provides a broad range of personal and corporate commercial banking services all over China.  The Bank's businesses include deposit, loan, credit card, fund underwriting and trust, and foreign currency settlement and trading.

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

Industrial Bank Co.,Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign currency management, and other services. Industrial Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Bank of Communications Co.,Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. Bank of Communications provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Postal Savings Bank of China C (601658 CH)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to individual and corporation customers worldwide.  The bank's services include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

Bank of Ningbo shows sharply lower NIM YoY with a declining LDR ratio, that can both means worsening core earnings power. High real estate loan...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Mar 2024); Big Net Buys of SOEs, Finally Tencent a Net Buy

Hong Kong SOUTHBOUND Connect saw strong net buying again. SB has net purchased every day since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. Tencent was...

Travis Lundy

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Monitor shows A/H Pair discount/premia and their history, as well as the SB and NB flows and position/history, and a recommended...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)