External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 25% in the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (6% return over the same period) by a wide margin.</li><li>The basket, however, declined by 2.5% in Oct’23 on account of the volatile equity market.</li><li>Nonetheless, it still managed to beat the benchmark Nifty 50 as it de-grew more at 2.8% on an MoM basis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 25% in the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (6% return over the same period) by a wide margin.The basket, however, declined by 2.5% in Oct’23 on account of the volatile equity market.Nonetheless, it still managed to beat the benchmark Nifty 50 as it de-grew more at 2.8% on an MoM basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks - ‘Growth at a Reasonable Price’ – an Overarching Theme - Nov 2023

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as reported till 22nd Sep’23) of ~20% YoY factoring in the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger (~15.3% YoY ex-HDFC) continues to remain healthy and largely driven by Retail and SME.</li><li>On the other hand, the corporate segment continues to pace gradually.</li><li>Taking cue from this, we expect Banks to maintain their credit growth momentum in Q2FY24E and factor-in healthy growth of ~15% YoY for banks under our coverage. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as reported till 22nd Sep’23) of ~20% YoY factoring in the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger (~15.3% YoY ex-HDFC) continues to remain healthy and largely driven by Retail and SME.On the other hand, the corporate segment continues to pace gradually.Taking cue from this, we expect Banks to maintain their credit growth momentum in Q2FY24E and factor-in healthy growth of ~15% YoY for banks under our coverage. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. </li>
<li>There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a>has the lowest RORWA </li>
<li>There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. </li>
</ul>


Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. 
There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)has the lowest RORWA 
There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. 


Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Power Grid Corporation Of India / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.</li>
</ul>


The rebalance of the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50, NSE Nifty Bank, CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and a bunch of other indices will be implemented at the close of trading today.
Depending on the index, there are constituent changes, changes to the number of shares and free float, plus capping changes. Put together, there is a lot of flow and impact.
The round-trip trade will be in excess of US$1bn. Add in the futures &amp; options expiry and volumes will be extremely high in the last 30 minutes of trading.


NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

Axis Top Picks - ‘Growth at a Reasonable Price’ – an Overarching Theme - Nov 2023

We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 25% in the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index

Axis Direct

BFSI Q2FY24 Earnings Preview

The systemic credit growth (as reported till 22nd Sep’23) of ~20% YoY factoring in the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger (~15.3% YoY ex-HDFC) continues to...

Axis Direct

Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

PNB is seeing rising operating costs, languishing NIM, stagnant LDR. Its high government loans may be a key burden on returns. Credit cost decline...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY Family Index Rebalance: Flows at the Close Today + F&O Expiry

The rebalance of the NIFTY family of indices will be implemented at the close today. The round-trip trade is around US$1bn and volumes at the close...

Brian Freitas

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