Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:<ul><li>Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10</li><li>Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13</li><li>Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17</li><li>Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20</li></ul>

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the loudest -- it’s the Sector and Group trends. With the exception of Consumer Discretionary, cyclicals continue to outperform.  In addition, bank stocks are recovering from failed breakdowns, aided by a rebound in interest rates and, setting the stage for another leg higher. Asset managers also exhibit strength. In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in both Groups ... pages 9-20

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the loudest -- it’s the Sector and Group trends. With the exception of Consumer Discretionary, cyclicals continue to outperform.  In addition, bank stocks are recovering from failed breakdowns, aided by a rebound in interest rates and, setting the stage for another leg higher. Asset managers also exhibit strength. In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in both Groups ... pages 9-20

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly: Actionable Banks & Asset Managers

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The most visible sign of credit quality for banks are non-performing loans (NPL) or the NPL ratio. But there are many other indicators of credit quality that are less visible. Net write-offs are one such item. While not heralded with vigor in Asia Pacific, it is a data series that US bank analysts weed out as much or more so than NPL data. And it is often a leading indicator of deteriorating credit quality. In China, average NPL ratios have hardly moved in the past two years. Net…

The most visible sign of credit quality for banks are non-performing loans (NPL) or the NPL ratio. But there are many other indicators of credit quality that are less visible. Net write-offs are one such item. While not heralded with vigor in Asia Pacific, it is a data series that US bank analysts weed out as much or more so than NPL data. And it is often a leading indicator of deteriorating credit quality. In China, average NPL ratios have hardly moved in the past two years. Net…

China Banks: Rising Write-Offs at Odds with NPLs

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A conference call with IR of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/484" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ)</a> reveals plenty of room for loan growth in the next few years.</li><li>BBRI is a gold standard in micro loans lending, evidenced by a healthy micro loan growth and its low NPL ratio.</li><li>Digital banking remains in an infancy stage at this point.</li><li>Our GGM-model-derived PT is Rp16,700/share, implying a decent 11% upside potential from current share price. </li></ul>

A conference call with IR of Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ) reveals plenty of room for loan growth in the next few years.BBRI is a gold standard in micro loans lending, evidenced by a healthy micro loan growth and its low NPL ratio.Digital banking remains in an infancy stage at this point.Our GGM-model-derived PT is Rp16,700/share, implying a decent 11% upside potential from current share price. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia: A Gold Standard in Micro Loans Lending

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Commodity prices are in the tank, and producers are feeling the pinch. US grain producers, as a result, are struggling to repay their debt.* John Deere Capital Corporation (JDCC) has been creative in this challenging environment  - pulling forward nearly 2.5 years of demand for farm machinery just as NIMs and credit quality have each seen a more permanent degradation. No doubt players such as: Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM.IN) and Kubota (6326.JP) too are experiencing the same and behaving similarly…

* Commodity prices are in the tank, and producers are feeling the pinch. US grain producers, as a result, are struggling to repay their debt.* John Deere Capital Corporation (JDCC) has been creative in this challenging environment  - pulling forward nearly 2.5 years of demand for farm machinery just as NIMs and credit quality have each seen a more permanent degradation. No doubt players such as: Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM.IN) and Kubota (6326.JP) too are experiencing the same and behaving similarly…

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

U. S. Equity Strategy Weekly

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly: Actionable Banks & Asset Managers

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the...

Vermilion Research

China Banks: Rising Write-Offs at Odds with NPLs

The most visible sign of credit quality for banks are non-performing loans (NPL) or the NPL ratio. But there are many other indicators of credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Rakyat Indonesia: A Gold Standard in Micro Loans Lending

A conference call with IR of Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ) reveals plenty of room for loan growth in the next few years. BBRI is a gold...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Deere & Company – In the Headlights

* Commodity prices are in the tank, and producers are feeling the pinch. US grain producers, as a result, are struggling to repay their debt.* John...

Thomas J. Monaco

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