Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Don’t Be Fooled: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 3Q20 earnings of USD 3.2 bn (EPS of USD 1.40) – increasing USD 1.9 bn (145.4%) on a linked quarter basis and coming in well head of consensus of USD 0.89 per share. Core operating results were even more impressive at Citi, improving USD 2.3 bn or 3.6x linked quarter. Citi cut its loss provisioning effort by USD 5.6 bn (71.4%) during the period despite net new NPLs remaining on an aggressive upswing;*Getting Squeezed From Every Angle: Citi’s operating revenues declined driven by both the decline in principal transactions revenue of USD 1.6 bn (39.7%) and NIM pressures. Expenses were problematic for Citi as well, increasing USD 589 mn (5.7%) over the same period and pushed its C&amp;I ratio higher by 10.1% to 64.4%; and  *Consent Order: On October 7, 2020, Citi announced a Consent Order with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  and the Office of the Comptroller to take action to improve its risk management, data governance, and internal controls. There was also a USD 400 mn penalty.

*Don’t Be Fooled: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 3Q20 earnings of USD 3.2 bn (EPS of USD 1.40) – increasing USD 1.9 bn (145.4%) on a linked quarter basis and coming in well head of consensus of USD 0.89 per share. Core operating results were even more impressive at Citi, improving USD 2.3 bn or 3.6x linked quarter. Citi cut its loss provisioning effort by USD 5.6 bn (71.4%) during the period despite net new NPLs remaining on an aggressive upswing;*Getting Squeezed From Every Angle: Citi’s operating revenues declined driven by both the decline in principal transactions revenue of USD 1.6 bn (39.7%) and NIM pressures. Expenses were problematic for Citi as well, increasing USD 589 mn (5.7%) over the same period and pushed its C&amp;I ratio higher by 10.1% to 64.4%; and  *Consent Order: On October 7, 2020, Citi announced a Consent Order with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  and the Office of the Comptroller to take action to improve its risk management, data governance, and internal controls. There was also a USD 400 mn penalty.

Credit costs are down substantially at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wells-fargo-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:232:1" rel="noopener">Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US)</a> in the latest quarter. This is understandable given its sharp rise during previous quarters and well higher than its own history. WFC had stood out here going on the quarter and we are seeing how it plays out. Long-term perspective shows even through the early 1990s that WFC may be in for a period of low provisions.

Credit costs are down substantially at Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US) in the latest quarter. This is understandable given its sharp rise during previous quarters and well higher than its own history. WFC had stood out here going on the quarter and we are seeing how it plays out. Long-term perspective shows even through the early 1990s that WFC may be in for a period of low provisions.  

Wells Fargo – The Great Provision Delta

*First Out Of The Gate: J.P, Morgan &amp; Co. (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 3Q20 results of USD 9.3 bn or USD 2.92 per share – well ahead of consensus of USD 2.22 per share. Results improvement was led primarily by JPM’s USD 9.9 bn (94.2%) reduction in loss provisions on a linked quarter basis. Offsetting the stellar bottom-line performance, we note several troubling trends: a) net interest income declined on the back of NIM compression and loan portfolio contraction; b) a significant decline in capital markets related revenues; and c) expenses increases;    *Credit Weakness Decelerates: Despite calculating that NCOs were actually a negative USD 1.4 bn, we find that net new NPLs linked quarter amounted to a positive USD 184 mn or 7.0% on an annualized basis. While still weakening, the pace of increase has decelerated from the 26% posted in 2Q20; and* CAPM and Cost Pressure: Volatile capital markets-related revenues took a bit of a digger – declining USD 3.9 bn (26.7%) linked quarter - representing a declining 66.9% of total revenues at 3Q20 (down from the 77.0% posted at 2Q20). When we exclude compensation costs which have a large variable component, we note that the more fixed expenses increased. Comp/revenue, despite the overall bottom-line improvement, worsened to 53.5% - up 3.8% during the period while JPM’s efficiency ratio worsened to 57.9% versus 51.4% in 2Q20.

*First Out Of The Gate: J.P, Morgan &amp; Co. (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 3Q20 results of USD 9.3 bn or USD 2.92 per share – well ahead of consensus of USD 2.22 per share. Results improvement was led primarily by JPM’s USD 9.9 bn (94.2%) reduction in loss provisions on a linked quarter basis. Offsetting the stellar bottom-line performance, we note several troubling trends: a) net interest income declined on the back of NIM compression and loan portfolio contraction; b) a significant decline in capital markets related revenues; and c) expenses increases;    *Credit Weakness Decelerates: Despite calculating that NCOs were actually a negative USD 1.4 bn, we find that net new NPLs linked quarter amounted to a positive USD 184 mn or 7.0% on an annualized basis. While still weakening, the pace of increase has decelerated from the 26% posted in 2Q20; and* CAPM and Cost Pressure: Volatile capital markets-related revenues took a bit of a digger – declining USD 3.9 bn (26.7%) linked quarter - representing a declining 66.9% of total revenues at 3Q20 (down from the 77.0% posted at 2Q20). When we exclude compensation costs which have a large variable component, we note that the more fixed expenses increased. Comp/revenue, despite the overall bottom-line improvement, worsened to 53.5% - up 3.8% during the period while JPM’s efficiency ratio worsened to 57.9% versus 51.4% in 2Q20.

JP Morgan & Co. – Good Credit Omen For US and Global Banks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Performance between US Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.</li>
<li>The difference in performance is down to their vastly different portfolios, with Value funds heavily reliant on Financials and Health Care stocks and Aggressive Growth funds heavily exposed to Tech and Communication Services. </li>
<li>However, there is some overlap.  There are a number of stocks that appear to offer something for both Value and Growth investors, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lowe-s-companies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4156:1" rel="noopener">Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schwab-charles-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13610:1" rel="noopener">Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US)</a> </li>
<li>In this analysis, we explore a portfolio that combines stocks that are owned by more than 10% of both the Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds in our analysis.  </li>
</ul>


Performance between US Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.
The difference in performance is down to their vastly different portfolios, with Value funds heavily reliant on Financials and Health Care stocks and Aggressive Growth funds heavily exposed to Tech and Communication Services. 
However, there is some overlap.  There are a number of stocks that appear to offer something for both Value and Growth investors, including Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US), Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW US) and Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US) 
In this analysis, we explore a portfolio that combines stocks that are owned by more than 10% of both the Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds in our analysis.  


US Value Vs Growth:  The Goldilocks Portfolio

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

There are conflicting factors at play in assessing banks, including Chinese banks, which will making the path forward that much more difficult to...

Daniel Tabbush

Citigroup – Watch The Negative Jaws

CITIGROUP: Investors Shouldn't Be Fooled By The EPS Beat Led By A Massive Pre-emptive Provision Cut. Bank Has Negative Operating Jaws, Worsening...

Thomas J. Monaco

Wells Fargo – The Great Provision Delta

Long-term perspective shows that Wells Fargo may be in for a period of incredibly low provisions, which should be beneficial to results going forward.

Daniel Tabbush

JP Morgan & Co. – Good Credit Omen For US and Global Banks

JPM Results, A Good Credit Omen For US and Global Banks. Reserve Reversals Likely To Be A Trend For 4Q20 Results Season -Although Issues Persist

Thomas J. Monaco

US Value Vs Growth: The Goldilocks Portfolio

Performance between US Value funds andtwo groups has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.

Steven Holden

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