Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We retain Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its attractive PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics</li>
<li>We also stick with our positive call on Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 2Q23, even if there was QoQ cost of risk relief; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward</li>
</ul>


We retain Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its attractive PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics
We also stick with our positive call on Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 2Q23, even if there was QoQ cost of risk relief; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward


Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.</li>
<li>JIIPE will become a more important contributor for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo</a>, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo</a> remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>



AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp up of sakes at JIIPE.
JIIPE will become a more important contributor for AKR Corporindo, as it builds a critical mass of EV-battery-related tenants plus it benefits from increasing demand from smelters for chemicals

AKR Corporindo remains a core industrial holding in Indonesia, through both its petroleum and chemicals business plus its industrial estate, which is a multi-year growth story. Valuations remain attractive. 


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Positive - High Market Share, Steady Recovery

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>PNLF has seen its asset growth ratchet downward, running at near 12-year lows at +2% YoY </li>
<li>Phases of ROE decline are apparent, from 12-13%, then to 9%, and now to 5-6%</li>
<li>At least, there is a rebound in profit growth in FY22, after dismal 3 years</li>
</ul>


PNLF has seen its asset growth ratchet downward, running at near 12-year lows at +2% YoY 
Phases of ROE decline are apparent, from 12-13%, then to 9%, and now to 5-6%
At least, there is a rebound in profit growth in FY22, after dismal 3 years


Panin Financial - Vanishing Growth, Falling ROE, Despite Likely Rebalancing Beneficiary

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> continues to march to the tune of its micro-lending capabilities with recent moves focused on growing its higher-yield Kupedes and ultra-micro loans. </li>
<li>Upward pressure on funding costs in 1Q2023 was more than offset by a shift to higher-yield loans and lower cost of credit, with greater efficiencies through digital initiatives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> is somewhat overcapitalized which allows for higher dividend payout and higher ROEs over time. The bank remains a core holding in Indonesia </li>
</ul>



Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) continues to march to the tune of its micro-lending capabilities with recent moves focused on growing its higher-yield Kupedes and ultra-micro loans. 
Upward pressure on funding costs in 1Q2023 was more than offset by a shift to higher-yield loans and lower cost of credit, with greater efficiencies through digital initiatives.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) is somewhat overcapitalized which allows for higher dividend payout and higher ROEs over time. The bank remains a core holding in Indonesia 


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Shifting to Higher Yield Products

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....

Victor Galliano

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked a solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp-up of...

Angus Mackintosh

Panin Financial - Vanishing Growth, Falling ROE, Despite Likely Rebalancing Beneficiary

PNLF shows vanishing asset growth, falling ROE, and what appears to be a continuation of this during 1Q23. Even if it is a beneficiary from index...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Shifting to Higher Yield Products

Bank Rakyat continues to march to the tune of its micro-lending capabilities with recent moves focused on growing its higher-yield Kupedes and...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

​Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....

Victor Galliano

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - A Steely Operator

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked a solid set of numbers despite a less favourable pricing environment with the additional boost from a ramp-up of...

Angus Mackintosh

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Positive - High Market Share, Steady Recovery

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Panin Financial - Vanishing Growth, Falling ROE, Despite Likely Rebalancing Beneficiary

PNLF shows vanishing asset growth, falling ROE, and what appears to be a continuation of this during 1Q23. Even if it is a beneficiary from index...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Shifting to Higher Yield Products

Bank Rakyat continues to march to the tune of its micro-lending capabilities with recent moves focused on growing its higher-yield Kupedes and...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Negara remains our top pick due to low PE multiples and attractive PEG ratio. We also like Bank Mandiri for its high returns and low PEs....