Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from Positive to Stable on two state-owned banks and a wholly foreign-owned bank in Vietnam, and the outlook of two JSC banks from Stable to Negative;</li>
<li>
Fitch Concerns: The downgrades stem from sharply lower growth in Vietnam associated with the corona virus pandemic which likely will negatively impact commercial bank credit profiles over the near-term.  Thin capital buffers are another area of concern, as some major banks still struggling to comply with local Basel II requirements. Credit stresses, even if not all are reported as impaired during the relief period, suggest that credit impairments accruing; and</li>
<li>
Our Continued Concerns: We continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. Capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow.</li>
</ul>



 Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from Positive to Stable on two state-owned banks and a wholly foreign-owned bank in Vietnam, and the outlook of two JSC banks from Stable to Negative;

Fitch Concerns: The downgrades stem from sharply lower growth in Vietnam associated with the corona virus pandemic which likely will negatively impact commercial bank credit profiles over the near-term.  Thin capital buffers are another area of concern, as some major banks still struggling to comply with local Basel II requirements. Credit stresses, even if not all are reported as impaired during the relief period, suggest that credit impairments accruing; and

Our Continued Concerns: We continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. Capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow.


Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Technological & Commer / Equity Bottom-Up

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the Vietnamese banking sector. Techcombank is Vietnam's largest joint stock bank by operating income and PBT – remaining the country’s most profitable bank from an ROA perspective despite having only a 3% deposit market share. Techombank is also the leader in mortgage, bancassurance, credit cards, and investment banking;  * Sector Credit Risks Are High: As we review each bank individually we continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. In our view, Vietnam has essentially done very little to address its legacy NPLs - which we estimate to be over USD 50 bn or 20% of total loans – and the SBV’s newly adopted “extend and pretend” policy will be substantially additive to the current heap of problem assets even if not labelled such; and* Capital Pressures Rising: With almost no end in sight to the growth of net new NPLs (doubling every year), and capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow. The draft amendments to a Decree for tax payment deferral and the SBV’s request not to pay a cash dividend confirms Basel II compliance pressures.

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the Vietnamese banking sector. Techcombank is Vietnam's largest joint stock bank by operating income and PBT – remaining the country’s most profitable bank from an ROA perspective despite having only a 3% deposit market share. Techombank is also the leader in mortgage, bancassurance, credit cards, and investment banking;  * Sector Credit Risks Are High: As we review each bank individually we continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. In our view, Vietnam has essentially done very little to address its legacy NPLs - which we estimate to be over USD 50 bn or 20% of total loans – and the SBV’s newly adopted “extend and pretend” policy will be substantially additive to the current heap of problem assets even if not labelled such; and* Capital Pressures Rising: With almost no end in sight to the growth of net new NPLs (doubling every year), and capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow. The draft amendments to a Decree for tax payment deferral and the SBV’s request not to pay a cash dividend confirms Basel II compliance pressures.

Techombank – Still Vietnam’s Best House In A Bad Neighborhood

Bank For Investment And Deve / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
One For the Ages: The Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BID.VN) [BIDV] held a somewhat delusional 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM). In February 2020, BIDV became the 12th bank to clear its balance due to the VAMC, just as credit quality is likely to take a massive turn for the worse. No doubt it will be hitting up the VAMC for more bonds near-term. To that end, BIDV has already committed to expand its loan bailout to VND 120 tn. BIDV was unfortunately among the Basel II non-compliant despite the sale of a 15% stake to KEB Hana Bank (086790.KS). 2020 forecasts are in the stratosphere and need to come back to earth.</li>
<li>
Reality Check Needed For Vietnam: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) recently lowered Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.3% from 6.8% in 2020. Given the symbiotic economic relationship between mainland China and Vietnam, we find the Fitch’s GDP growth forecast to be incredibly generous as crisis conditions typically suggest negative GDP growth. The IV Board survey revealed that nearly 30% surveyed had lost between 20-50% of revenues associated with the corona virus, while 60% had lost revenues by over half.  It also suggested that six months of this economic weakness could lead to 74% of surveyed companies to become bankrupt.</li>
<li>
Liquidity Wall: Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall. The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) – and now growing - which constrains spending while the banking system (as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime) remains saddled with troubled debt which too has reversed its downward trend - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.</li>
</ul>



One For the Ages: The Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BID.VN) [BIDV] held a somewhat delusional 2020 Annual General Meeting (AGM). In February 2020, BIDV became the 12th bank to clear its balance due to the VAMC, just as credit quality is likely to take a massive turn for the worse. No doubt it will be hitting up the VAMC for more bonds near-term. To that end, BIDV has already committed to expand its loan bailout to VND 120 tn. BIDV was unfortunately among the Basel II non-compliant despite the sale of a 15% stake to KEB Hana Bank (086790.KS). 2020 forecasts are in the stratosphere and need to come back to earth.

Reality Check Needed For Vietnam: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) recently lowered Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.3% from 6.8% in 2020. Given the symbiotic economic relationship between mainland China and Vietnam, we find the Fitch’s GDP growth forecast to be incredibly generous as crisis conditions typically suggest negative GDP growth. The IV Board survey revealed that nearly 30% surveyed had lost between 20-50% of revenues associated with the corona virus, while 60% had lost revenues by over half.  It also suggested that six months of this economic weakness could lead to 74% of surveyed companies to become bankrupt.

Liquidity Wall: Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall. The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) – and now growing - which constrains spending while the banking system (as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime) remains saddled with troubled debt which too has reversed its downward trend - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.


BIDV – KEB Hana Has To Be Kicking Itself Now

<ul>
<li>
Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis.  The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) which constrains spending while the banking system as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime remains saddled with troubled debt - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.</li>
<li>
Plans Not Working: Despite the government's half-baked plans to have the Vietnam Asset Management Corporation (VAMC) to offer accounting gimmickry to the banking sector along with the failed plan to privatize the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the Committee to Manage State Capital at Enterprises (CMSC), this factors are taking a toll on some of Vietnam's largest companies.</li>
<li>
Two Large Troubled Names:  VinGroup (VIC.VN), Vietnam's largest company plans to issue its first THB-denominated bonds after exhausting all of its local funding options in Vietnam and exiting various businesses.  Novaland (NVL.VN) is one of Vietnam's largest real estate developers, which has been under scrutiny for projects with a questionable land-bank acquisition history. </li>
</ul>



Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis.  The sovereign has a high level of public debt (near its 65% debt/GDP cap) which constrains spending while the banking system as it converts over to the more stringent Basel II capital regime remains saddled with troubled debt - resulting in systemic balance sheet and liquidity constraints.

Plans Not Working: Despite the government's half-baked plans to have the Vietnam Asset Management Corporation (VAMC) to offer accounting gimmickry to the banking sector along with the failed plan to privatize the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the Committee to Manage State Capital at Enterprises (CMSC), this factors are taking a toll on some of Vietnam's largest companies.

Two Large Troubled Names:  VinGroup (VIC.VN), Vietnam's largest company plans to issue its first THB-denominated bonds after exhausting all of its local funding options in Vietnam and exiting various businesses.  Novaland (NVL.VN) is one of Vietnam's largest real estate developers, which has been under scrutiny for projects with a questionable land-bank acquisition history. 


<ul>
<li> Bank and Sovereign Liquidity and Capital Under Severe Stress.  </li>
<li> VinGroup Not An Anomaly. </li>
<li>VAMC Is Nothing But a Shell Game. </li>
<li> Capital Forbearance Is Not a Dirty Word In Vietnam.</li>
<li> Systemic NPLs Likely 30%-40% of Total Loans. </li>
</ul>


 Bank and Sovereign Liquidity and Capital Under Severe Stress.  
 VinGroup Not An Anomaly. 
VAMC Is Nothing But a Shell Game. 
 Capital Forbearance Is Not a Dirty Word In Vietnam.
 Systemic NPLs Likely 30%-40% of Total Loans. 


Vietnam

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade accepts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The bank offers corporate and consumer loans; insurance; securities and derivatives brokerage; lease financing; money transfer; credit cards; and other services

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG VN)

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade

Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint-stock Bank, doing business as Techcombank, provides banking services. The Bank offers savings, deposits, loans, credit cards, monetary management, trade finance, international payment, and foreign exchange services. Techcombank serves individuals, corporates, and the government sectors in Vietnam.

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank offers commercial banking services.  The Bank provides services in the areas of personal banking, corporate banking, financial banking, and e-banking.  Military Commercial's services include savings accounts, money lending, money transfers, foreign exchange, and money markets.

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN)

Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers domestic remittance services, savings account, personal loans, e-banking, trade financing, deposits, tax payment, foreign exchange, cash management, and other banking services. VPBank serves customers in Vietnam.

Asia Commercial Bank attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.

Ho Chi Minh Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank provides commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers personal and car loans, overdraft, business financing, term deposits, current accounts, mobile banking, and online bills payment services. Ho Chi Minh Development serves customers in Vietnam.

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint-Stock Bank, known as Sacombank, operates various personal and corporate banking services such as deposits, foreign exchange transactions, loans, outward transfer, and international payments.

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam provides banking products and services for individuals, corporates, and financial institutions in Vietnam and internationally. The company accepts personal and savings accounts; and business accounts, such as current accounts, and time and special deposit products. Its loan products comprise personal loans; and short-term lending, working capital financing, project finance, and trade finance products. In addition, the company offers various cards; account services, including demand and term deposit accounts, fund management, and auto-investment services; and money transfer, bancassurance, payments and cash management, foreign exchange and treasury, international payments, guarantees, investment banking, asset management, correspondent banking, factoring, financial and office leasing, securities, and remittance services. Further, it provides electronic banking services, such as Internet, mobile, SMS, and phone banking services, as well as VCB-Money, VCB-eTour, and VCB-eTopup services. As of December 31, 2014, the company operated 89 branches, 351 transaction offices, and 1 representative office. Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN)

Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank provides commercial and personal banking services.

Vietnam Export Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank provides various banking services and products to organizations and individual customers in Vietnam. The company offers demand, savings, time, overnight, accumulated, and payment deposits; deposits with preferential, tiered, and daily interest rates; deposits with optional terms; and certificates of deposit. It also provides housing loans, loans for small traders, loans secured by savings books and valuable papers, loans for securities trading and investments, T-day securities loans, overseas study loans, auto loans, unsecured loans for employees, overdrafts, and loans by investment projects; factoring services; and prepaid, debit, credit, co-branded cards. In addition, the company engages in foreign currency trading by spot, swap, forward, and currency options and gold trading; provides money transfer and remittance services; packaging services for overseas studies; Internet, mobile, and SMS banking services; and bill payment services, such as electricity, water, air ticket, and automatic bill payment services, as well as telecommunication charge payment and collection services. Further, it offers centralized deposit management, payroll, and cash services; payment of travelers� cheques, and cheque issuance and collection; international settlement services. Additionally, the company engages in the receipt of funds entrusted for investment; receipt of funds from domestic and foreign credit institutions; discount of commercial papers, state bonds, and valuable papers; investment in securities; issuance of domestic and international cards; financial advisory services; corporate bond trading; and other banking services. As of December 31, 2014, it operated a network of 208 banking units, including 44 Branches, 163 transaction offices, and 1 savings fund. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Bank of the Philippine Islands, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services. The Company's products includes ATM, debit card system, credit card, electronic cash card, internet platform and other services.

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

First Horizon National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of financial services. The Company offers a variety of commercial banking services and also conducts mortgage banking, capital markets, and transaction processing.

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, guarantees, and trade finance for customers, corporate, and financial institutions. Bank for Investment also offers foreign exchange, money market, derivatives, and debt market services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank For Investment And Deve (BID VN)

Vietnam – Fitch Downgrades Banks

Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from...

Thomas J. Monaco

Techombank – Still Vietnam’s Best House In A Bad Neighborhood

* Head Start On Economic Return to Normalcy: Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (TCB.VN) [Techcombank] is a long-term winner in the...

Thomas J. Monaco

BIDV – KEB Hana Has To Be Kicking Itself Now

One For the Ages: The Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BID.VN) [BIDV] held a somewhat delusional 2020 Annual General Meeting...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam - Wheels Are Falling Off

Liquidity Wall:Vietnam is running into a liquidity wall - despite the perception of a positive local investment thesis. The sovereign has a high...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam - Banks Are a Complete Charade

Bank and Sovereign Liquidity and Capital Under Severe Stress. VinGroup Not An Anomaly. VAMC Is Nothing But a Shell Game. Capital...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)