ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.</p>
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<section class="figure">Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY</section>
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<p>In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has announced partnerships with both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a>, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.</p>
<p>The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.</p>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.



Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY

In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has announced partnerships with both Grab and Gojek, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.
The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.









Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Research Analyst

Ilvin Cornelis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>I really like these eight banks – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bpd-jawa-barat-dan-banten-tb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:134:1" rel="noopener">Bank BJB (BJBR IJ)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener"> </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-danamon-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1" rel="noopener">Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-pan-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:727:1" rel="noopener">Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ)</a>, mainly due to their reasonable valuations, coupled with their ability to attract more deposits from customers.</p>
<p>Many of these banks are still trading below, or at least in line, with their historical 3-year average PBRs. Given my expectation of profitability improvements over the next 3 years, their current valuations are still reasonably attractive.</p>

I really like these eight banks – Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ),Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ), Bank BJB (BJBR IJ) , Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ), and Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN IJ), mainly due to their reasonable valuations, coupled with their ability to attract more deposits from customers.
Many of these banks are still trading below, or at least in line, with their historical 3-year average PBRs. Given my expectation of profitability improvements over the next 3 years, their current valuations are still reasonably attractive.

Indonesia's Banking Sector: The Eight Bank Stocks to Watch For

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> revealed some interesting views on its strategy for expansion over the next few years at a webinar hosted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> on Smartkarma this week, driven to a large extent by the new senior management team at the bank.</p>
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<p>Loan growth continues to be driven by lower risk areas such as corporate loans to top tier customers with the addition of some notable new high-profile clients.</p>
<p>Its micro KUR loans, SME loans, payroll, and consumer loans, mainly mortgages, also continue to grow, with medium-sized loans declining.</p>
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<p>The cost of 3rd party funds continued to fall to an all-time low in 2Q2021 given the rapid decline in time deposit rates and increasing CASA.</p>
<p>Profitability also continued to improve in 2Q2021 with PPOP rising by 24.4%, whilst net profit increased by +12.8% YoY and +7% QoQ. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> is optimistic on the outlook for returns, targeting higher ROEs in 2022, mainly driven by higher ROA.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> continued to push forward with its digital transformation and especially with mobile banking, where it now has the highest customer rating for its app versus its peers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> has also revealed that it is potentially open to opening a stand-alone digital bank through acquiring a smaller bank, which is a change from the previous strategy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> continues to be a universal bank with around 70% of its business coming from wholesale lending. Management continues to see a huge opportunity in cross-selling its cash management businesses and other services.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> has revised its guidance somewhat to reflect this latest round of Emergency PPKM measures with loan growth downgraded slightly but net interest margin forecasts increased.</p>
<p>Valuations look appealing, with the bank trading on 0.7x FY2021E PBV and a forward FY22E PER of 6.5x. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ</a>) is often seen as the bank playing catch up with its peers but maybe this time is different. </p>


Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) revealed some interesting views on its strategy for expansion over the next few years at a webinar hosted by Daniel Tabbush on Smartkarma this week, driven to a large extent by the new senior management team at the bank.




Loan growth continues to be driven by lower risk areas such as corporate loans to top tier customers with the addition of some notable new high-profile clients.
Its micro KUR loans, SME loans, payroll, and consumer loans, mainly mortgages, also continue to grow, with medium-sized loans declining.



The cost of 3rd party funds continued to fall to an all-time low in 2Q2021 given the rapid decline in time deposit rates and increasing CASA.
Profitability also continued to improve in 2Q2021 with PPOP rising by 24.4%, whilst net profit increased by +12.8% YoY and +7% QoQ. Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) is optimistic on the outlook for returns, targeting higher ROEs in 2022, mainly driven by higher ROA.
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) continued to push forward with its digital transformation and especially with mobile banking, where it now has the highest customer rating for its app versus its peers.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) has also revealed that it is potentially open to opening a stand-alone digital bank through acquiring a smaller bank, which is a change from the previous strategy.
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) continues to be a universal bank with around 70% of its business coming from wholesale lending. Management continues to see a huge opportunity in cross-selling its cash management businesses and other services.
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has revised its guidance somewhat to reflect this latest round of Emergency PPKM measures with loan growth downgraded slightly but net interest margin forecasts increased.
Valuations look appealing, with the bank trading on 0.7x FY2021E PBV and a forward FY22E PER of 6.5x. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) is often seen as the bank playing catch up with its peers but maybe this time is different. 

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Revealing a New Digital Skin

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<p>Managing expectation</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Managing expectationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Managing expectation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>13 days ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-bbri-s-mega-rights-issue-plenty-of-opportunity-short-term-and-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57354" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term</a> suggesting that the stock could fall as it entered its rights trading period. It has. At one point on 20 September the stock was down 7% from time of writing.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/848/original/Screenshot+2021-09-20+at+9.30.06+PM.png?1632145029" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230848"></figure></section><p>The time for people to buy and exercise is done, except for professional investors who can turn around their corporate action in a day or less. </p><p>More discussion below.</p>

13 days ago I wrote Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term suggesting that the stock could fall as it entered its rights trading period. It has. At one point on 20 September the stock was down 7% from time of writing.The time for people to buy and exercise is done, except for professional investors who can turn around their corporate action in a day or less. More discussion below.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) Rights-Related Selldown Basically Done

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a unique combination from different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia, directly plugged into the booming...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia's Banking Sector: The Eight Bank Stocks to Watch For

These eight banks have reasonable valuations and stand ready to benefit from stronger loan demand and rising interest rates, over the medium term.

Ilvin Cornelis

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Revealing a New Digital Skin

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) has tended to be the laggard amongst the top four Indonesia banks but with a new management team and a more dynamic...

Angus Mackintosh