Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on BDMS with a Neutral rating and a 12- month fair value (12M FV) of Bt28.75, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 3.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate long-term earnings growth at a CAGR of 8% in 2024-26E; meanwhile, the share price implies downside of -3%, and the tactical upside is very limited.</li><li>We like BDMS for its diversified revenue streams across various patient groups, its extensive network of hospitals, and its ability to cater to patients with health insurance, complex medical conditions, and the aging population through wellness services.</li></ul>

We initiate coverage on BDMS with a Neutral rating and a 12- month fair value (12M FV) of Bt28.75, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 3.7%.The valuation metrics indicate long-term earnings growth at a CAGR of 8% in 2024-26E; meanwhile, the share price implies downside of -3%, and the tactical upside is very limited.We like BDMS for its diversified revenue streams across various patient groups, its extensive network of hospitals, and its ability to cater to patients with health insurance, complex medical conditions, and the aging population through wellness services.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - Expected Earnings Peak in 3Q24E Already Priced In

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> reported Q3 revenue of RHB26.7 billion, up 11% YoY, driven by international and Thai patients revenue growth of 19% and 9%, YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>International patient revenues increased from a recovery of fly-in patients from Qatar (+81% YoY), China (+42% YoY), and Cambodia (+11% YoY). Moreover, Thai patient revenue was aided by seasonal epidemics.</li>
<li>BDMS has revised 2023 hospital revenue growth guidance upward to 9–10% YoY from 6–8% previously. However, EBITDA margin guidance was kept unchanged at ~24%.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) reported Q3 revenue of RHB26.7 billion, up 11% YoY, driven by international and Thai patients revenue growth of 19% and 9%, YoY, respectively.
International patient revenues increased from a recovery of fly-in patients from Qatar (+81% YoY), China (+42% YoY), and Cambodia (+11% YoY). Moreover, Thai patient revenue was aided by seasonal epidemics.
BDMS has revised 2023 hospital revenue growth guidance upward to 9–10% YoY from 6–8% previously. However, EBITDA margin guidance was kept unchanged at ~24%.


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Highest Ever Quarterly Sales in 3Q; 2023 Guidance Raised

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> posted double-digit growth revenue, EBITDA, and net profit in 1Q24. International and Thai patients reported revenue growth of 12% and 10%, YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>EBITDA grew at a faster pace of 13% YoY to THB6.8B, due to tight cost control. Net profit of THB4.1B beat estimates.</li>
<li>BDMS opened one secondary care hospital with 113 registered beds in March. Phuket Cancer Center is expected to start operation in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) posted double-digit growth revenue, EBITDA, and net profit in 1Q24. International and Thai patients reported revenue growth of 12% and 10%, YoY, respectively.
EBITDA grew at a faster pace of 13% YoY to THB6.8B, due to tight cost control. Net profit of THB4.1B beat estimates.
BDMS opened one secondary care hospital with 113 registered beds in March. Phuket Cancer Center is expected to start operation in 3Q24.


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Thai and International Patients Drives 1Q24 Result

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> reported double-digit top and bottomline growth in 4Q23. Growth was attributable to international and Thai non-COVID patient revenues growth.</li>
<li>In 2023, total revenue was THB102B, up 10% YoY, matching the higher end of the guidance range of 9–10%. EBITDA margin of 24.2% remained higher than guidance of 24.0%.</li>
<li>In 2024, BDMS expects healthcare business to grow continuously on the back of secular tailwinds in the healthcare sector in Thailand.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) reported double-digit top and bottomline growth in 4Q23. Growth was attributable to international and Thai non-COVID patient revenues growth.
In 2023, total revenue was THB102B, up 10% YoY, matching the higher end of the guidance range of 9–10%. EBITDA margin of 24.2% remained higher than guidance of 24.0%.
In 2024, BDMS expects healthcare business to grow continuously on the back of secular tailwinds in the healthcare sector in Thailand.


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Core Business Drives 4Q23 Result; Outlook Remains Positive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> reported stellar performance in 3Q23 exceeding expectations, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, while PAT more than doubles on higher patient volumes and improved case mix.</li>
<li>To deliver profitable growth, IHH will continue its organic expansion, including adding close to 4,000 beds in the next five years to its existing 12,000 operational beds.</li>
<li>Notwithstanding the strong underlying demand for quality healthcare services driving operational and financial growth, IHH expects cost pressures from elevated inflation, and rising interest rates.</li>
</ul>



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) reported stellar performance in 3Q23 exceeding expectations, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, while PAT more than doubles on higher patient volumes and improved case mix.
To deliver profitable growth, IHH will continue its organic expansion, including adding close to 4,000 beds in the next five years to its existing 12,000 operational beds.
Notwithstanding the strong underlying demand for quality healthcare services driving operational and financial growth, IHH expects cost pressures from elevated inflation, and rising interest rates.


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Double-Digit Growth Across Key Metrics for Q3; Bed Expansion to Continue

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited operates Bangkok General Hospital. The Hospital specializes in cardiovascular, lung, neurological, eye and genitourinary cancer, as well as physical therapy and medical imaging.

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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - Expected Earnings Peak in 3Q24E Already Priced In

We initiate coverage on BDMS with a Neutral rating and a 12- month fair value (12M FV) of Bt28.75, based on the earnings yield method with a...

Krungthai XSpring