Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a 12M FV of Bt160.00, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 15.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside to the fair price of just 2%, while the tactical risk is neutral.</li><li>Moreover, the long-term growth prospects are also expected to be just neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a 12M FV of Bt160.00, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 15.7%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside to the fair price of just 2%, while the tactical risk is neutral.Moreover, the long-term growth prospects are also expected to be just neutral.

Bangkok Bank - 3Q24 NP Beat Forecast by 10%

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.</li>
<li>The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%</li>
<li>The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ</li>
</ul>


Where there are many other areas of interest in Asia, globally, the figures just out for Bangkok Bank are incredible to us, not in a positive way.
The bank has seen its NPLs rise from THB71bn to THB85bn to THB92bn from 4Q23 to 2Q24 to 3Q24, putting YTD growth at 29%
The bank has more than 1/4 of its loans in manufacturing &amp; commercial where loan balances are down 4.0% YTD and down 4.3% QoQ


Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.</li><li>BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic variables, in line with our house view assumptions.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued (with upside of 8.4% to the current share price); however, this is offset by slow earnings growth prospects and a neutral tactical view.BBL’s 2Q24 net profit beat our forecast by 17% at Bt11.8bn, growing 4.5% YoY and 12.2% QoQ.

Bangkok Bank - Upbeat 2Q24 Earnings but Weaker Asset Quality

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating, based on the earnings yield and the new required rate of return of 16.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical view is neutral</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating, based on the earnings yield and the new required rate of return of 16.7%.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E.Meanwhile, the tactical view is neutral

Bangkok Bank - 2Q24E Net Profit Expected to Fall YoY and QoQ

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

Bangkok Bank - 3Q24 NP Beat Forecast by 10%

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside to the fair price of just 2%, while the tactical risk is neutral.

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank - BBL Sees 29% Higher NPLs YTD and Core Manufacturing & Commercial Loans -4% YTD

BBL is seeing dwindling loan balances in its core segment - manufacturing and commercial loans are -4% YTD. And what's worse: its NPLs are surging,...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bangkok Bank - Upbeat 2Q24 Earnings but Weaker Asset Quality

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a new fair value of Bt149.06 (vs. Bt138.23 previously), following the adjustments to the macroeconomic...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank - 2Q24E Net Profit Expected to Fall YoY and QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally undervalued, which is offset by an expected low CAGR of 3.4% in 2024-26E. Meanwhile,...

Krungthai XSpring

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