Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our core profitability and credit quality screens send out mixed signals; generally, credit quality metrics to end-September 2021 were constructive, in our view, whilst core profitability signals were underwhelming </li>
<li>We expect credit quality to worsen in the coming quarters, leading to higher credit costs going forward and, combined with core profitability softness, an erosion of returns</li>
<li>We like HDFC Bank, turn cautious on State Bank of India &amp; Axis Bank and are negative on Canara Bank &amp; Bandhan Bank; neutral on Kotak Mahindra &amp; ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


Our core profitability and credit quality screens send out mixed signals; generally, credit quality metrics to end-September 2021 were constructive, in our view, whilst core profitability signals were underwhelming 
We expect credit quality to worsen in the coming quarters, leading to higher credit costs going forward and, combined with core profitability softness, an erosion of returns
We like HDFC Bank, turn cautious on State Bank of India &amp; Axis Bank and are negative on Canara Bank &amp; Bandhan Bank; neutral on Kotak Mahindra &amp; ICICI Bank


Indian Banks; A Time for Increased Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>GAIL (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a price target of INR 210 is based on 9% CAGR expansion in gas transmission volume over FY22-24E to 136mmscmd on the back of (1) increase in domestic gas production, (2) increase in demand of RLNG, and (3) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India. Q2FY22 EBITDA/APAT were 34/47% above our estimates, owing to a 7% higher revenue, lower-than-expected raw material cost, higher-than-expected other income, and lower-than-expected tax outgo.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

GAIL (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a price target of INR 210 is based on 9% CAGR expansion in gas transmission volume over FY22-24E to 136mmscmd on the back of (1) increase in domestic gas production, (2) increase in demand of RLNG, and (3) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India. Q2FY22 EBITDA/APAT were 34/47% above our estimates, owing to a 7% higher revenue, lower-than-expected raw material cost, higher-than-expected other income, and lower-than-expected tax outgo.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, DLF, InterGlobe Aviation, Tata Power, GAIL (India), JSW Energy, Bandhan...

<ul>
<li>We screen 7 Indian banks for their core profitability and their credit quality credentials, in order to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver higher returns going forward</li>
<li>We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality, as well as capital adequacy ratios</li>
<li>We expect credit quality to continue to worsen in the coming quarters, especially as the moratorium on new NPL classification began to normalise as from April; yet we believe that certain Indian banks are well positioned and have already taken action to counter the threat of higher delinquencies, through cost of risk charges and write-offs</li>
<li>We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> as a restructuring and earnings recovery story, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> for its high quality balance sheet and premium returns, which are not yet fully reflected in valuations; we also see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> as an attractive value play, despite its lighter core capital ratio</li>
<li>We are cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a>, seeing it as a potential value trap; at first look, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> looks appealing on prospective PBV ratio to ROE and high pre-provision returns but we are wary of its high share of micro-finance and SME credit risk exposure in the light of rising NPA ratios</li>
<li>Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected credit quality resulting in higher cost of risk, higher than expected opex and weak revenue generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenues with lower than expected opex and cost of risk leading to higher post-provision returns</li>
</ul>


We screen 7 Indian banks for their core profitability and their credit quality credentials, in order to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver higher returns going forward
We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality, as well as capital adequacy ratios
We expect credit quality to continue to worsen in the coming quarters, especially as the moratorium on new NPL classification began to normalise as from April; yet we believe that certain Indian banks are well positioned and have already taken action to counter the threat of higher delinquencies, through cost of risk charges and write-offs
We highlight Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) as a restructuring and earnings recovery story, and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) for its high quality balance sheet and premium returns, which are not yet fully reflected in valuations; we also see State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) as an attractive value play, despite its lighter core capital ratio
We are cautious on Canara Bank (CBK IN), seeing it as a potential value trap; at first look, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) looks appealing on prospective PBV ratio to ROE and high pre-provision returns but we are wary of its high share of micro-finance and SME credit risk exposure in the light of rising NPA ratios
Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected credit quality resulting in higher cost of risk, higher than expected opex and weak revenue generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenues with lower than expected opex and cost of risk leading to higher post-provision returns


Indian Banks; Screening for Investment Ideas, Despite the Credit Quality Hurdles

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<div>
<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches</p>
</div>
<p>Companies covered in this Insight include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24196:1" rel="noopener">AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ujjivan-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28443:1" rel="noopener">Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equitas-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28834:1" rel="noopener">Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 


For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

<p>Bandhan Bank Ltd. (Bandhan) results were above our expectations backed by improved operating performance and NIMs rebounding to normalized levels. The disbursements were impacted due to the regional lockdowns, resulting in a run-off in the loan book on a sequential basis, which was down 8% QoQ. The share of EEB (MFI loans) increased from 64% in Q1FY21 to 66% in Q1FY22. However, the share of group lending decreased from 61% in Q1FY21 to 58% in Q1FY22, in line with the bank’s strategy to de-focus on group lending and shift towards Individual EEB loans.</p><p>We maintain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 350/share, implying an upside of 20% from CMP.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Bandhan Bank Ltd. (Bandhan) results were above our expectations backed by improved operating performance and NIMs rebounding to normalized levels. The disbursements were impacted due to the regional lockdowns, resulting in a run-off in the loan book on a sequential basis, which was down 8% QoQ. The share of EEB (MFI loans) increased from 64% in Q1FY21 to 66% in Q1FY22. However, the share of group lending decreased from 61% in Q1FY21 to 58% in Q1FY22, in line with the bank’s strategy to de-focus on group lending and shift towards Individual EEB loans.We maintain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 350/share, implying an upside of 20% from CMP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bandhan Bank: Asset Quality Stress To Persist In Near-Term

India

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Indian Banks; A Time for Increased Caution

Credit quality is likely to worsen, leading to higher credit costs going forward and eroded returns; We like HDFC Bank, turn cautious on SBI &...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, DLF, InterGlobe Aviation, Tata Power, GAIL (India), JSW Energy, Bandhan...

GAIL (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a price target of INR 210 is based on 9% CAGR expansion in gas transmission volume over FY22-24E...

HDFC Securities

Indian Banks; Screening for Investment Ideas, Despite the Credit Quality Hurdles

Screening for ideas, we are positive on Axis Bank and HDFC Bank, and State Bank of India too; due to credit quality concerns, we are cautious on...

Victor Galliano

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance...

Pranav Bhavsar

Bandhan Bank: Asset Quality Stress To Persist In Near-Term

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 350/share, implying an upside of 20% from CMP. Bandhan Bank results were above our...

Axis Direct

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